Sunday, February 17, 2008

Object hyperlinking

Object hyperlinking

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Object hyperlinking is a neologism that refers to extending the Internet to objects and locations in the real world. The current Internet does not extend beyond the electronic world. Object hyperlinking aims to extend the internet to the real world by attaching tags with URLs to tangible objects or locations. These tags can then be read by a wireless mobile device and information about objects and locations retrieved and displayed.


System components

Linking an object or a location to the internet is a more involved process than linking two web pages. An object hyperlinking system requires seven components -

Components of an object hyperlinking scheme
Components of an object hyperlinking scheme
  1. A physical or virtual tag to identify objects and locations. Some tagging systems are described below. To allow the smaller physical tags to be located they must be embedded in visual markers. For example, the Yellow Arrow scheme [see below] prints SMS tags on large adhesive yellow arrows, which can then be stuck on buildings etc.
  2. A means of reading physical tags, or locating virtual tags.
  3. A mobile device such as a mobile telephone, a PDA or a portable computer.
  4. Additional software for the mobile device.
  5. A digital wide area wireless network, such as the existing 2G and 3G networks, for communication between the portable device and the server containing the information linked to the tagged object.
  6. Information on each linked object. This information could be in existing WWW pages, existing databases of price information etc, or have been specially created.
  7. A display to view the information on the linked object. At the present time this is most likely to be the screen of a mobile telephone.

Tags and tag readings systems

There are a number of different competing tagging systems.

RFID tags
A radio frequency identification device (also known as an 'Arphid') is a small transponder which can be read at short range by a transceiver (reader). Since RFID tags can be very small, they are often embedded in a more visible marker to allow them to be located.
A RFID reader can be added to an existing mobile telephone as a shell. Nokia produce such a shell for their 3220 mobile phone. At the moment few mobiles have RFID capability, but this may change, since such RFID enabled mobiles may be used for cashless payments and other purposes.
From 2005 travelers in the city of Hanau, near Frankfurt, Germany will be able to pay for bus tickets by passing their Nokia phones over a smartcard reader installed on the buses. Other applications for RFID enabled mobiles include swapping electronic business cards between phones, and using a mobile to check in at an airport or hotel. Two RFID enabled devices may also be used to enable peer-to-peer transfer of data such as music, images or for synchronizing address books.
QR Code for "An internet of things"
QR Code for "An internet of things"
Graphical tags
A graphical tag consists of an image on a marker, which can be read by a mobile telephone camera. There are a number of competing systems, including open standards like Quick Response QR Codes, Datamatrix, Semacodes[1] (based on Datamatrix), and barcodes; or proprietary systems like ShotCodes. The design of such coding schemes needs to be rich enough to include lots of information and robust enough for the tag to be readable, even when partly obscured or damaged: tags might be on the outside of buildings and exposed to wear and the weather.
Graphical tags have a number of advantages. They are easy to understand and cheap to produce. They can also be printed on almost anything, including t-shirts. Barcodes are a particularly attractive form of tagging because they are already very widely used, and camera phones can easily read them.
SMS tags
An SMS tag comprises a short alphanumerical code, which can be printed on a marker or chalked on a wall. The Short Message Service is then used to send the code and return a message. Yellow arrows[2] are an example of this form of tagging.
Virtual tags
In a virtual tagging system there is no physical tag at a location. Instead a URL is associated with a set of geographical coordinates. When a GPS equipped mobile phone enters a particular area the phone can be used to retrieve all URLs associated with that area. The area can be set as a few metres or a much wider area. At the moment few mobiles are GPS enabled and GPS is not accurate in urban areas. The accuracy of GPS may improve when the European Union Galileo positioning system becomes operational.
Text-based
Text-based linking uses the objects natural name or part number. It does require that the user phone be Internet enabled, but it does not require the upload of any software or the need to affix a barcode to the subject object. The name or number of the target object is entered into a cell phone browser pointed at the defined Web portal, such as Yellow arrow and hardlink.mobi, retrieving pre-configured database files.

Applications for object hyperlinking

The object hyperlinking systems described above will make it possible to link comprehensive and editable information to any object or location. How this capability can best be used remains to be seen. What has emerged so far is a mixture of social and commercial applications.

  • The publishers of the Lonely Planet guidebooks are issuing yellow arrows, with one of their guidebooks and encouraging travellers to leave tags to stories and comments wherever they go.
  • Siemens see their virtual tagging system being used to tag tourist sites, and also leave messages for friends. They also suggest that virtual tags could be used to link advertisements with locations. Geominder also offer a virtual tagging service.
  • Nokia have demonstrated that when a 3220 phone with the RFID shell attached is tapped against an RFID-enabled advertisement, a URL can be read and information about the advertised product or service returned to the phone.
  • Japanese consumers are able to read barcodes with their mobiles and download comparative prices from Amazon.
Using Semapedia to link from a tag to a Wikipedia article
Using Semapedia to link from a tag to a Wikipedia article
  • Semapedia have created a system for linking physical objects and Wikipedia articles using the Semacode tagging scheme. Graphical tags can be created that link to the URLs of individual Wikipedia articles. These tags can then be attached to the physical objects mentioned in the Wikipedia articles. Reading a tag with a camera phone will then retrieve an article from Wikipedia and display it on the phone screen. This creates the Mobile Wikipedia advocated by Mobile Weblog and Eclectica.
  • An alternative to using 2d barcodes is to apply computer vision techniques to identify more complex patterns and images. Companies like Daem, kooaba or Neven Vision develop image recognition platforms to turn any image into object hyperlinks.
  • NeoMedia Technologies offers a complete system for linking physical objects to the electronic world. The NeoReader code scanning software transforms mobile phones into universal 2D code readers and provides one-click access to mobile content. It provides interoperability among 2D codes (it reads Data Matrix, QR Code, Aztec Code, EAN/UPC Barcode, and Code 128) and operates on a variety of handsets. By scanning a 2D code from a product package, advertisement, publication, or any other medium, mobile users are able to link directly to a specific web page, even to pages deep within Web sites - bypassing long URLs, search engines and avoiding cumbersome menus.
  • Microsoft have developed a system for creating hyperlinks using image matching.

Toward a Global "Internet of Things"

Article

Toward a Global "Internet of Things"



By Steve Meloan, November 11, 2003
In the early 1990s, a small news item in Wired magazine described an obscure software product developed out of the University of Illinois. The application was called Mosaic, and it soon proved to be the "killer app" of the Internet. Within a matter of several years, an entire industry had been built around it and its successors. Mosaic was not the first application of its type, but it delivered a new paradigm of usability to the previously arcane task of "browsing" hypertext links.

Another potentially industry-defining technology recently emerged at the inaugural EPC (Electronic Product Code) Symposium, held September 15-17 in Chicago's McCormick Place The gathering marked the official launch of the Electronic Product Code Network, an open technology infrastructure developed by a global consortium of companies and researchers.

The EPC network, using tiny RFID (Radio Frequency ID) tags, will enable computers to automatically recognize and identify everyday objects, and then track, trace, monitor, trigger events, and perform actions on those objects. The technology will effectively create an "Internet of things." RFID will fundamentally impact the industries of manufacturing, retail, transportation, health care, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, and government, offering an unprecedented real-time view of assets and inventories throughout the global supply chain. And in the process, whole new vistas (and challenges) will open up to software developers.

Evolution or Revolution?
Most industry observers agree that the next wave of growth in the technology sector will be outside the realm of the traditional PC desktop. But many think of that growth in mundane terms -- with such things as cell phones and PDAs. In reality, we stand on the verge of an era that will see previously unimagined networked devices and objects. There are already some exciting applications that span the technology spectrum. NASCAR.com offers a Java applet-driven virtual dashboard that displays real-time wireless telemetry from cars during a race -- registering location, speed, RPM, braking, and more. The race cars have effectively become networked devices. Meanwhile, NASA, with the assistance of GE Medical, is now able to monitor real-time medical data (such as blood pressure, respiration, and heart rate) from its Space Shuttle astronauts. Even trees are on the network. Fifty battery powered "micromote" sensors now dangle from UC Berkeley's Mather Redwood Grove, part of a pilot program to monitor the health of groves of redwoods. The sensors register light, moisture, and temperature, enabling scientists to continuously monitor the microclimates surrounding given trees.

Such diverse networked "devices" offer concrete evidence of Metcalfe's Law. Robert Metcalfe, one of the developers of Ethernet, formulated that the usefulness of a network increases by the square of the number of nodes (users or devices) connected to the network. (Imagine how useful the telephone system would be if there were only two phones in the world!)

"In the future, everything of value will be on the network in one form of another," says John Fowler, Software CTO of Sun Microsystems. "And once they're on the network, we can aggregate data from those diverse devices, and then deliver that data to equally diverse devices -- in informative and compelling ways." And that's exactly what we're seeing today. "Most people think of a PC or a PDA as things connected to the network," continues Fowler. "But here we are connecting trees, race cars, and astronauts to the network. It's going to become a much more seamless spectrum."

More about RFID
With the official release of the Electronic Product Code Network, we are about to see the "Internet of things" paradigm enter the big time -- the world of mainstream commerce.

Looking at the big picture, the term Auto-ID refers to any broad class of identification technologies used in the world of commerce to automate, reduce errors, and increase efficiency. These technologies include bar codes, smart cards, sensors, voice recognition, and biometrics.

But the Auto-ID technology currently on center stage is Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). RFID is a generic technology that entails using tiny wireless transmitters to tag individual objects, uniquely identifying them. Such RFID tags allow companies to automatically track objects, trigger events, and perform actions upon the objects.

RFID chips have now been made as small as 0.3 millimeters (about the size of a pencil tip). There are a variety of different types -- active (battery-driven), semi-passive (also battery-driven), and passive (driven by the inductive energy of a tag reader). Each has different advantages, disadvantages, and features.

Figure 1: An Ant Playing with RFID Chips
Figure 1: An Ant Playing with RFID Chips
Figure 2: Passive RFID Tag Architecture
Figure 2: Passive RFID Tag Architecture
Figure 3: RFID Tag Types
Figure 3: RFID Tag Types
RFID transponder (transmitter/responder) technologies have long been in operation -- from the key card entry systems used in many corporate settings, to wireless toll booth payment facilities. Such passive RFID tags typically have a range of only several feet; the electromagnetic field emitted by the reader induces a current in the tag/card, causing it to transmit a low-energy wireless response.

But such technologies have previously been proprietary in nature, lacking in standards. In order to provide a truly useful "Internet of things," it's necessary to ensure open standards and global interoperability.

The Auto-ID Center
The Auto-ID Center, founded in 1999, is a non-profit, global research organization, partnered with 103 companies and institutions (representing combined annual revenues of over $1.5 trillion, and hundreds of billions of goods). The center is headquartered at MIT, with sister labs at the University of Cambridge in England, Adelaide University in Australia, Keio University in Japan, Fudan University in China, and St. Gallen University in Switzerland.

The founding sponsors of the center -- the Uniform Code Council (UCC), EAN International, Gillette, and Proctor & Gamble -- began with the vision of a world where computers could identify any object, anywhere, instantly. The member companies in the Auto-ID Center now include such major corporations as Coca-Cola, Gillette, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft, Lowes, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Sara Lee, Target, Unilever, UPS, and Wal-Mart.

But to realize the Auto-ID Center's vision, it's first necessary to define, build, test, and deploy a global, open infrastructure on top of the Internet. This includes affordable hardware, network and software protocols, and development languages. Sun Microsystems -- with its twenty-year commitment to secure, open, networked, scalable, cross-platform technologies -- is uniquely qualified to play a major role in the Auto-ID Center's work. Since 2000, Sun has chaired the Technology Board and the Software Action Group at the Center.

The Auto-ID Center's two major goals have been to lower the cost of the RFID tags and readers, and define the technology infrastructure necessary to effectively employ them in a global, industry-wide EPC network.

EPC Code: Improving on UPC
At the core of the Auto-ID Center's just-released infrastructure for RFID technology is the EPC code, the numeric data transmitted by a tag. The EPC code is, in effect, intended to be the next generation of the Universal Product Code (UPC), or bar code, that is found on virtually every consumer item today. But unlike the UPC, the EPC is designed to operate not only without "line of sight" (that is, wirelessly), but to uniquely identify each individual object.

To foster the widespread use and interoperability of RFID technology, particularly at the level of tagging individual products and packages, cost reduction is of the essence. Tag prices are currently $.20 apiece, but are expected to drop to $.05 apiece. Readers are currently at $2000-$3000, but are expected to drop to $100. Open standards, global adoption, and multi-vendor competition will serve to bring about such competitive pricing.

With cost consciousness in mind, the Auto-ID Center has defined several different versions of the EPC spec -- 64 bits, 96 bits, and 256 bits. The diagram below details the 96-bit spec, which provides unique identifiers for 268 million companies. Each company can have up to 16 million distinct object classes, with 68 billion serial numbers within each object class.

Figure 4: 96-bit EPC Layout
Figure 4: 96-bit EPC Layout

Unlike a UPC bar code, EPC provides for the unique identification of any physical object in the world:

  • The header (8 bits) specifies the EPC's version number.
  • The EPC manager field (28 bits) provides the name of the enterprise (typically the manufacturer).
  • The object class field (24 bits) specifies the class of product (typically the stock keeping unit (SKU).
  • The serial number field (36 bits) uniquely identifies the individual item.
The Wal-Mart Effect
New technologies come and go; many never quite achieve popular traction. But RFID and EPC are likely to be different. Just a glance at the A-list companies that are partnered with the Auto-ID Center will give you an idea of how broad the interest is in these exciting new technologies. And one need only look back at past technologies to see the catalyzing effect of having major enterprises adopt them. The original patent for bar codes was issued in 1952. It then took twenty years for a standard to be approved; in 1982, only 15,000 suppliers were using bar codes. But by 1987, there were 75,000 suppliers using bar codes. What changed during those few years? Here's what: in 1984, Wal-Mart, the country's largest retailer, began using the technology.

Now, fast-forward to the present. Wal-Mart recently notified its top 100 suppliers that they must install RFID tags (for inventory tracking) on all cases and pallets of their products by January 1, 2005. And the remaining 12,000 suppliers are expected to follow suit by 2006. When Wal-Mart speaks, the retail industry listens. Clearly, RFID is a technology whose time has come.

Drilling Down

The core standards and technologies currently defined by the Auto-ID Center and its partners include:

  • EPC
  • RFID tags
  • Tag readers
  • Savant servers
  • Object Naming Service (ONS)
  • Product Markup Language (PML)
  • EPC Information Service (EPC IS)
Object Naming Service
Modeled after the Internet Domain Name System (DNS), the Object Naming Service (ONS) effectively matches the RFID tag to information about the tagged object -- by mapping the EPC number code (via IP address) to its associated information on a PML server.

Figure 5: EPC Network Summary
Figure 5: EPC Network Summary
Product Markup Language
Product Markup Language (PML) is XML-based, and intended as a universal standard for describing physical objects in the EPC network. PML is used to store such information as product composition, lot number, date of manufacture, proper usage, proper storage, and more. Using the information stored via PML and the EPC network infrastructure, a retailer can update information as it moves through the supply chain, set triggers to lower prices as expiration dates near, recall products, and so forth.

The Auto-ID Center's PML specification consists of PML Core and PML Extensions. PML Core is used to describe data directly generated by the EPC network infrastructure (such as RFID readers and temperature sensors). The PML Extensions are used to describe product and process-related information (expiration dates, shipping information, and so on.).

Figure 6: PML Core Auto-ID Sensor Data
Figure 6: PML Core Auto-ID Sensor Data
Savant
As its name implies, the Savant element in the EPC infrastructure performs a particular function -- and does it extremely well. With the sheer volume of data likely to be seen in some commercial settings, where an RFID reader may detect a hundred EPCs per second, the data challenges border on those found in processing telemetry. Thus, there has to be a filtering layer between the tag readers and the enterprise network.

The Savant sits at the leading edge of the EPC network, providing reader adapters (to accommodate different hardware providers), as well as functionality for smoothing data, correcting duplicate reads, providing business processing rules, and forwarding data up and down the infrastructure.

Figure 7: EPC Savant Architecture
Figure 7: EPC Savant Architecture
The current Savant specification defines the Reader Interface, Processing Modules, and the Application Interface. The Reader Interface specifies the interaction between the Savant and various reader devices, principally RFID tag readers. Processing Modules provide specific sets of features, which may be combined by the user to meet the needs of his/her application. The Savant itself is a container for Processing Modules. Processing Modules may interact with one another through APIs that they define. The Application Interface provides the connection to external applications -- existing enterprise applications, new EPC-specific applications, and even other Savants.

Sun Technology
As the company that recognizes "The Network is the Computer," Sun Microsystems is uniquely positioned to take a leading role in the Auto-ID revolution. In an "Internet of things," Sun's core strengths of security, scalability, and cross-platform compatibility between diverse networked systems have never been more essential. With J2EE, J2SE, J2ME, and JavaCard, Sun offers a complete spectrum of cross-platform computing environments, all the way down to the microchip.

On September 16, 2003, at the EPC Symposium in Chicago, Sun announced its newly formed enterprise Auto-ID initiative. Julie Sarbacker is the director of the company's new Auto-ID Business Unit, which will work aggressively with customers and partners to develop and deliver standards-based Auto-ID/EPC solutions. This best-of-breed list of Auto-ID partners already includes Alien Technology, Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, ConecTerra, Gorilla Logic, Manhattan Associates, Provia Software, ThingMagic, Tyco Sensormatic, VeriSign, and Xterprise.

Sun's proposed Auto-ID solution architecture includes the Sun EPC Information Server (essentially the Sun ONE Integration Server and Auto-ID specific application components), and Sun EPC Event Manager (Savant), which are in development, and scheduled for release in 2004.

Figure 8: Sun's Proposed EPC Infrastructure
Figure 8: Sun's Proposed EPC Infrastructure
Critical Mass
The use of RFID in industry appears to be reaching critical mass. In addition to Wal-Mart's planned implementation of RFID by 2005, Gillette has reportedly purchased 500,000 RFID tags. With them, they hope to reduce out-of-stock items, cut labor costs, and reduce theft and counterfeiting. Proctor & Gamble's CIO, Steve David, has stated that the company expects to save $1.5 billion annually in supply-chain costs through the use of Auto-ID. Michelin, which manufactures 800,000 tires a day, is considering putting RFID tags in each of its tires. Delta Airlines is testing RFID on certain flights, tagging 40,000 customer bags to reduce loss and make routing more efficient. The U.S. military has placed tags on 270,000 cargo containers and trucks, tracking shipments through 40 countries. And just this month, the United States Acting Under-Secretary of Defense, Michael W. Wynne, spelled out an ambitious plan (a la Wal-Mart) to require its suppliers to use RFID tags on all shipments to the military by January, 2005. Visa is exploring putting RFID tags in smart cards, so people can conduct transactions without even having to open their wallets. The European Central Bank is even considering embedding RFID tags in individual Euro notes, to help combat counterfeiting and money laundering. With such tags in place, banks could count large amounts of money in a matter of seconds. But it doesn't take a civil libertarian to recognize the potential downside of such tag placement. Not only would the last bastion of anonymous commerce fall by the wayside, but a criminal with the proper technology could conceivably detect how much money a person was carrying.

With such potential problems, there is clearly a need for a secure technology in the Auto-ID space. The individual players and devices within an Auto-ID network must be verified and trusted -- yet the Auto-ID Center's specifications do not address a security technology. But here again, Sun/Java technology is perfectly positioned, having been designed since its inception with networked security in mind.

New Ways of Thinking
To meet the needs and challenges of the burgeoning "Internet of things," developers will need to change their notions about what a networked device is -- and how it can be used to provide compelling and profitable services. In short, it's time to think outside of the PC/handheld box.

Sun's John Fowler quantifies this evolution in terms of two "megatrends." "Megatrend number one, is that reduced costs have brought with them the viability of connecting almost anything to the network," he explains. "And megatrend number two is that this ubiquity of access will make it so that people's notions about what they interact with will change dramatically. As an application developer, you have to sit back and say, if everything is connected to the network, how will that change the way I process information?"

A perfect example of this new way of thinking is found in tagging pharmaceuticals. The obvious use of such tags would be for inventory control. But more forward-thinking developers have already envisioned a hospital application that would tag patients and medications -- making them both implicit devices on the network. An RFID tag reader would detect both objects, allowing the dispensing of that medication only to approved patients.

Scaling will be another major development concern in the Auto-ID space. "In the PC world, there's generally just one device per user," adds Fowler. "But when you're putting tags on every package of pharmaceuticals, and on every pair of blue jeans, you have to think on an entirely different scale. It becomes necessary to map a universe of millions, or even billions, of things into a much smaller network of things that have an IP address."

Opportunities
With some Auto-ID adoption deadlines little more than a year away, the business opportunities are clearly already here. ConnecTerra, a partner company in the Auto-ID Center, is concentrating its development efforts on the Auto-ID space. Believing that in the next decade, tens of billions of autonomous devices and assets will be connected to the network, the company wants to help facilitate this revolution. ConnecTerra provides Java technology-based software infrastructures for what they call the "aware enterprise," allowing companies to connect in real time to distributed devices, and integrating into back-end operations.

"We define an aware enterprise as a business that has a visibility and understanding of what's going on in its overall operating environment," says Dave Douglas, ConnecTerra's founder and CEO. "Enterprise computing is within the four walls of the business. Web computing extends out to people through browsers. But the real untapped opportunity is in providing information about what's going on in stores, warehouses, trucks, and customer sites, and then being able to factor that information into your business decisions."

In addition to developing Auto-ID infrastructure software, ConnecTerra is targeting what they see as the need for "remote services" in the networked device space. "There's already so much smart equipment out there," says Douglas. "In hospitals, doctors and nurses don't necessarily understand the ins and outs of how to debug the equipment they use." As devices like CAT scanners become increasingly networked, there is the opportunity to remotely monitor and maintain such equipment.

And the need for remote services will become all the more imperative as networked devices continue to expand in manufacturing, the supply chain, and retail. "The convenience store of the future will have a smart supply room, smart shelves, smart signs, smart gas pumps, and very smart point-of-sale terminals," says Douglas. "Some of this will be enabled by RFID, but also by sensor technology, wireless networking, and low-cost processing. But in order for this collection of complex devices to deliver reliable business value, it will be imperative to remotely manage and service it from the device manufacturer or the store headquarters. Relying on the store staff for monitoring and upkeep will not be an option."

Looking Forward
In the fast-paced Auto-ID space, new developments take place nearly every month. In September 2003, the Auto-ID Center premiered its version 1.0 specifications. Those standards are now being put through a ratification process, along with a question-and-answer period for center members. There is no firm timeline for this process, but the official specification documents should be released within the next month.

Meanwhile, the Auto-ID Center will soon be passing off its work to a next-generation overseer of the standards work. The original consortium out of MIT led the initial standards-development process, but it was never intended to function as an official standards body. The MIT center helped the member companies and research institutions develop the specifications. But they are not legally authorized, for example, to license and sell unique EPC numbers, or to take over the standards administration and compliance. For this reason, the Auto-ID Center has licensed its technology and specifications to EPCglobal, Inc., a non-profit entity formed by EAN International and the Uniform Code Council (UCC). EPCglobal will be selling the unique numbers, as well as taking over the standards administration and compliance. The group will issue documents and standards, and handle the overall commercialization of these standards as the EPC network enters the big time of mainstream commerce.

The Auto-ID Center web site will provide updates in the coming weeks as to the 1.0 specifications, as well as the work of EPCglobal. In the meantime, the site currently offers a free beta version of the center's Savant software (requiring Red Hat Linux 7.x Intel, PostgreSQL 7.1 and above, JDK 1.4.1 and above, and Tomcat 4.0.3 and above).

The site also offers an online "Auto-ID Calculator," to allow you to gauge the value of Auto-ID to your business (note: plan to allow 20 minutes).

See Also
Auto-ID Center
(http://www.autoidcenter.org/)

Sun Auto-ID Site
(http://wwws.sun.com/software/solutions/auto_id/)

Auto-ID FAQ
(http://wwws.sun.com/software/solutions/auto_id/faq.html)

Auto-ID Center's Savant Software
(http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_savant_info.asp)

Auto-ID Center's Online Tool to Calculate the Value to Your Business
(http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_roi.asp)

Auto-ID Center's Version 1.0 Specifications (soon to be provided)
(http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_savant_info.asp)

Uniform Code Council (UCC)
(http://www.uc-council.org/)

EAN International
(http://www.ean-int.org/)

EPCglobal
(http://www.uc-council.org/epcglobal/index.html)

EPCglobal FAQ
(http://www.uc-council.org/epcglobal/faqs.html)

Sun ONE Application Server
(http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/appsrvr/home_appsrvr.html)

Sun ONE Identity Server
(http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/identity_srvr/home_identity.html)

Sun ONE Integration Server
(http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/integration_srvr_eai/home_int_eai.html)

ConnecTerra
(http://www.connecterra.com)

GE Medical Systems Monitoring Astronauts
(http://www.ge.com)

"Networked" Redwood Trees
(http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/07/28_redwood.shtml)

Future of Transportation - PART II

n the second part of his Future of Transportation series, Shai Agassi discusses the "Technical and Financial Implications" of the model he has suggested in addressing the transportation needs in the 21st century.

Technology and the Financial Implications

Apart from crossing peak oil, another major event happened around 2005 - the emergence of a new generation of batteries - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) - able to sustain more charge cycles and based on safe chemistry that can be put into a car. For the first time the total cost of energy for electric transportation has crossed under the cost of fuel when calculated on a per kilometer basis. The fundamental technology and economic drivers behind these two events will continue to drive the price vectors for fuel and electricity further apart in favor of the electron and battery. Within a decade, the cost of energy for a single year of fuel supply for a combustion car should cost more than the cost of energy for an electric car’s entire life, even when taking the cost of battery into consideration. The “cross-under point” had gone almost unnoticed in the world of automotive design which was focused on the hybrid-car race, yet its effect will change the industry in the most disruptive economic shift ever experienced in history. Cars are not complete products, as they would not provide any function without fuel and variety of services (such as maintenance). As the price of crude oil increased, it drove the price of fuel at the pump higher to become a much larger component of the total cost of car ownership. To illustrate, an average European car costs 12,000 euros to acquire, yet over its 12 years of life will require approximately 30,000 litres of fuel costing roughly 35,000 euros (assuming fuel prices do not continue to increase even further). In other words, we now have a container for energy built into the car - the fuel tank - costing US$ 100 to build; yet our energy costs three times the price of the car.

Contrast that with the electric vehicle where the container for energy, in this case a battery, costs roughly 7,000 euros, yet the electricity to run the car costs 2,000 euros for the entire life of the car. In the aggregate, energy to drive an electric vehicle now crossed under 10,000 euros. Historic trend lines for battery over the last 25 years shows a 50% price per kWh improvement every five years, stemming from technological and process improvements. We have seen similar effects in the chip industry, where Moore’s law predicted chip improvements amounting to 50% reduction every 18 months. Similarly, we see the price of renewable generation declining over the years, to the point where large solar installations cost today 2 euros per Watt, shedding price roughly at the same rate of 50% every five years. Projecting forward to 2015, we should see the cost of the battery and solar generation sufficient for a car reaching combined cost of 5,000 euros. By the end of the decade that price should drop to 3,000 euros with the battery and solar generation both outlasting the car. At some point during the next ten years, the total cost of electric energy (with battery) for a car will equate the cost of fuel for a single year. We predict that at some point in time before that next cross-under point the entire car industry will tip to electric drive as the main design principle for new cars. What is missing for this transformation to happen today? Infrastructure and scale. Consumers simply cannot buy products that are not available. Electric cars as well as all their critical components are produced in small runs, not on commercial scale.

The car industry was caught by surprise with the sharp increase in oil prices as the US makers focused on ever larger SUVs and vans. Even Toyota was surprised with the success of its hybrid Prius line. While the entire industry scrambled to catch up to the hybrid wave, every one of the car majors assuming no new infrastructure will be in place for a pure EV decided not to produce an EV until the emergence of a battery that can last for 10 years and provide enough energy to safely drive a car for 500+ kilometers. Since such a battery is not in existence, ( it is most likely that it will not be there for another 15-20 years) all makers pushed their EV plans into niche solutions focused on fleets of cars that run predetermined routes and come back to home base after 100-150 km, such as postal delivery trucks. It turns out that the solution does not stem from a more powerful battery.

Rather we propose the creation of a ubiquitous infrastructure that can enable a car to automatically charge up its battery when parked, and on the exceptional long drive using an exchange station where an empty battery is replaced with a full on in automated lanes resembling car-wash devices positioned in gas stations across the country. We for the first time look at the car battery as part of the infrastructure system, not part of the car, much like the SIM card inside a cell phone is part of the network infrastructure which is residing inside the phone. Since the car owners do not own the battery they can freely exchange it as needed, not fearing the issue of receiving an “older battery” in exchange for a new one. The collection of park and charge spots across a country or city, together with software that controls the timing for charging the cars, creates a smart grid - synchronized and extending the country’s existing electric grid, matching excess electricity on the grid with the need to charge batteries flattening the demand curve in the process. When we put together the charge points, the batteries, exchange stations, and the software that controls timing and routing we get a new class of infrastructure - the Electric Recharge Grid (ERG). A new category of companies will emerge in the next few years which will install, operate and service customers across this grid - called Electric Recharge Grid Operators (ERGOs).

The business model for such operators will be similar to that of wireless phone operators, and so we can predict that a few years after the ERGOs, we will also see the emergence of virtual operators on top of the physical grid (or VGOs). The economics of large infrastructure operators call for massive investments up front, which can be monetized over years through subscription-based services to consumers. Similarly in this case, once a grid is installed to the degree of sufficient ubiquity in a contained region, car owners will be able to subscribe to a complete commute solution – car, energy and maintenance contained in a singe predictable monthly price. Not only is the price predictable (unlike the case of fluctuating oil prices), depending on the length of the subscription the ERGO can subsidize the cost of acquisition of the car. As the costs of battery and clean electricity will continue to decline over the next ten years, we can easily foresee enough subsidies in the contract to the point where electric vehicles will be given for free to long-term subscribers. Assuming that subscribers will be happy to pay the same amount they pay for fuel and maintenance today, the economics require a contract lasting six years to get a free SUV.

By 2015 that same monthly fee will require a contract lasting four years and in 2020 that contract will already be reduced to three years – the average leasing contract today. Such radical process has happened before in the wireless phone industry, where it is almost expected today that a basic handset will be handed for free with any new subscription. With infrastructure and economics in place the demand curve for such new transportation model will grow exponentially – taking a significant portion of the current global demand for cars, standing at 70 million new cars a year. The supply curve for components and cars will need to scale similarly - scaling an entire set of industries, from batteries to motors and power electronics. To illustrate the rate of growth, today’s Lithium based battery market (working mainly for laptops and cell phones) produces enough batteries to power roughly 100,000 electric vehicles. Reaching a market of 10 million cars (representing only 15% market share) would require a 100-fold increase of annual production capacity globally.

On the other hand, as electric drive trains have less moving parts than the combustion engine and its supporting components, the markets for today’s mechanical auto parts (such as spark plugs and carburetors) will start to decline sharply, as will the market for car maintenance. We will also predict that used car prices will at some point decline sharply, as a result of the availability of cheaper all new clean cars, costing consumers less than the cost of fuel based used-cars. The magnitude of this disruption is discussed towards the end of this document, it will take time, but we believe it is almost unavoidable at this stage. Since we ran out of cheap oil and all new discoveries are in deep oceans or troubled locations in the world, we have now a floor price to the production and refining of oil. That floor price together with climate-related tax policy will make sure that even as demand for fuel subsides in following years as the predicted events unfold, the price of fuel will not be able to go back below the 1 euro per liter at the European pump.

The Future of Transportation - Part I

By Shai Agassi, Founder and CEO, Project Better Place
Published Monday, 4 February, 2008 - 17:37

Climate change, unstable political situations and economic complexities are already affecting the transportation industry. In the first part of a three part series on future of transportation, Shai Agassi explores the current situation.

Projecting the Future of Energy, Transportation and the Environment

In 2005, the world entered the “post peak-oil” era, as predicted by many oil experts years before reaching this situation. The price of oil is dominated by two factors, new discoveries of oil fields and global demand for oil, falsely called production. As the R/P ratio (Reserves to Production) slides we begin to witness sharp price hikes in the futures market for oil immediately affecting the price of fuel at the pump. During the last 10 years, the price of oil shot up from US$ 10 a barrel to well above US$ 80 a barrel, with current predictions more certain of the price crossing US$ 100 a barrel than ever coming back to US$ 50. The oil market is tightly intertwined with the car market, as both products complement one another to produce the “complete product” consumers desire - the freedom of personal commute. With this document we try to project the most probable set of changes in the energy markets and the transformational technologies that exist today and how they will come together to address this emerging oil shortage. The paper will also try to illustrate the potential business, national and regional effects of such transformation to the energy and related industries. It is important to note that as these markets are so complex and interdependent; many other events may happen can accelerate or alter the course of events described here. The technologies that are described here are all present today and no scientific breakthrough was assumed or needed.

Current State

The world depends on oil today as its fundamental transportation energy source. Half of oil production is used to drive consumer cars, commercial transportation (mostly trucks and boats) and air transportation. With the emergence of China as an outsourcing powerhouse, and the Internet as the global e-shopping mall, we have significantly increased the distance our global materials and finished goods travel, requiring more transportation fuels. Even more critical, with the emergence of a consuming middle class in China and India, we have a sharp rise in demand for cars. Those cars in emerging countries drive on congested roads and use cheaper older engine technologies - creating an immense demand for fuel and tremendous amounts of car emissions.

Various solutions have been proposed in recent years, with varying degree of success. Most prominently, ethanol as a short-term fossil fuel replacement and hydrogen infrastructure as a long-term solution, were touted as energy source and distribution mechanisms for our transportation needs. It is the authors’ belief that while ethanol has a very important role to play in the short term it is not a long-term solution at scale for the needs of driving a billion cars, which is the scale of our market within a few decades. Hydrogen on the other hand, is a fundamentally flawed approach due to the negative energy equation underlying the generation, storage and consumption of hydrogen in cars.

To understand the energy flow of fuel we need to understand the following energy/time cycle. Fossil fuel is the result of solar energy mixed with water in plants as we discover it after millions of years. Over the millions of years, the earth’s core energy and pressure concentrate the carbon-hydrogen bonds into high energy density molecules that humans extract, refine and burn (inefficiently) in small car engines.Unlike most descriptors used, we as humanity do not produce oil; we merely discover and surface it. To understand the cycle, let’s examine what happens to crude oil after we have it on the surface. Through the application of an energy intensive process of refining oil we attain its most valuable derivative hydro-carbon molecules - fuels and other petrochemical derivatives (such as plastics). We deliver the fuel through pipes and trucks to gas stations, where cars fill fuel into the car and consume the fuel through a very wasteful internal combustion engine - losing roughly 80% of the chemical energy fuel carries to non-productive heat.

In the process of releasing energy from fuel, we break carbon-hydrogen chemical bonds, creating CO2 as an undesired by-product which is slowly altering our atmosphere, heating our planet in the process. At the surface level fuel produces many other derivative gasses, such as NOx, that cause local pollution and deaths.

To solve our critical global shortage of oil, we must find solutions that do not require the millions of years earth takes to make oil out of plants. Ethanol can be made through direct conversion of plants (mostly sugar cane in Brazil, and corn in the US) into biofuel, cutting earth’s heat and pressure out of the loop. The problem with ethanol is the energy, water (not to mention the shortage of arable land) required to produce a unit of energy is so high today that scaling the solution affects our ability to feed our population. In a sense, we are entering a stage where oil has becomes tightly linked to food in a very dangerous zero-sum game. The manifestation of that link can be seen in sharp price hikes for basic food crops, such as corn, in the US over the last few years. Even worse, in countries like China we are running out of enough clean water for drinking and irrigation (which consumes 80% of our sweet water). The only way to produce more water is through desalination, in essence converting energy into water. As such, converting water into energy is the reversed process to the one desired by nations looking to solve our immediate water shortage. Other problems stemming from the inability to distribute of etha ol through pipes (Ethanol is a corrosive material) had already reduced the appeal of this fuel and prices for ethanol are dropping sharply in the US, despite rises in oil prices.

Hydrogen, on the other hand is not an energy source, rather an energy distribution mechanism. In a sense, we need to produce hydrogen, compress and distribute it, store it in the car without having it stream out of the container (a very complex problem), after which we can run it through a very expensive fuel-cell, where hydrogen atoms (the proton in the atom) combine with oxygen from the air, releasing an electron. It takes four electrons in production of hydrogen atoms to produce a single electron within the fuel cell. In a sense, we lose 75% of the energy we start with if we go through the hydrogen route. Regardless of the technical and economic problems in producing a viable hydrogen infrastructure, it is simply an inefficient process that cannot help us at scale. To understand the fundamental problem of hydrogen, we need to remember that what we want is the electron in the hydrogen atom, yet we seem to attach it to a proton which is 2000 times bigger to produce an inefficient distribution mechanism. The only question is why?

Our proposed solution improves the original solar energy concentration cycle by eliminating the role plants play routing photons from the sun (and their variants - wind and wave energy) into electrons within millions of car. We do so by collecting solar energy (through large scale solar thermal installations), generating electrons, sending the energy directly over the electric grid into an electric battery which powers an efficient electric motor. Motors, unlike engines, do not generate friction or heat, providing 90% + efficiency in converting electricity to motion. Past issues - such as battery cost, distance, speed and battery life have significantly improved over the last decade and the economics have now tipped in favor of electric transportation, as we will illustrate in the following paragraphs. A significant change required is the creating of new class of infrastructure replacing the role gas stations played with combustion engine based cars.

When we convert our transportation from combustion engines to electric motors, build renewable sources for the required electricity (a car needs an installation of approximately 1.2 kW of solar power, or 70% as much wind power) and connect the generation with the car through an intelligent Electric Recharge Grid (ERG) we will create a sustainable transportation energy solution which will go practically forever with no reliance on oil and no emissions.

The road to e-democracy

TECHNOLOGY AND GOVERNMENT

The road to e-democracy

Feb 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

E-government is only the beginning


Illustration by Allan Sanders

GOVERNMENTS have more or less caught up with what in geek-speak is called “web 1.0”, with the online world largely mimicking the offline world. E-mails replace letters; websites make publishing speedier and more effective; data are stored on the user's computer. A collection of programs, paid-for or pirated, are the essential tools for getting going.

But all this has been overtaken by “web 2.0”, shorthand for the interactivity brought by wikis (pages that anyone can edit) and blogs (on which anyone can comment). Data are accessed through the internet; programs are opened in browser windows rather than loaded from the hard disc; instant messages, often attached to social-networking sites such as Facebook, replace e-mail. Web 2.0 also means free video-sharing on sites such as YouTube and free phone calls between computers. These developments allow information to be shared far more effectively, at almost no cost. That gives great hope to the proponents of e-democracy.

The story so far is that technology intensifies the democratic process, but does not fundamentally change it. For example, the internet is now a vital way of raising money for political campaigns in America, but it has not supplanted the public meeting. Howard Dean's campaign for the Democratic party nomination in 2004 was a huge success in the blogosphere, but failed to translate into votes in real life. The internet has provided citizens with vastly more information about their elected representatives: their voting behaviour, their sources of finance, their outside interests, the content of every public speech they ever made. But the effects tend to cancel each other out. When each side has heavier ammunition, the battle rages on.

Some e-democracy efforts look like little more than gimmicks. Giving out politicians' personal e-mail addresses does not make them any more likely to read the result. Gordon.brown@no10.gsi.x.gov.uk, or president@whitehouse.gov make the recipients seem more accessible, but the message will probably be answered by a computer. Politicians and civil servants who have tried blogging have found it remarkably difficult to be both interesting and sensible. The spontaneous (and sometimes half-baked) tone of the blogosphere sits ill with the need to sound measured and definitive. Most politicians' blogs tend to degenerate into anodyne travelogues. One senior British official, Jeremy Gould, has an excellent blog on e-government. “We think he's been very brave,” says a colleague, carefully.

Where e-democracy may make a difference is in places where the middle class has become largely disengaged from politics. In India, for example, educated people are much less likely to vote than the rest. Opinion polls suggest that they are disgusted with bad government, but this rarely translates into votes against the incumbent parties.

Yet a few glimmers of hope are appearing. India is developing a caustic and increasingly effective blogosphere. Melody Laila, for example, electronically lambasts the inadequate public services in her native Mumbai, as well as the kid-glove treatment of corrupt politicians in Delhi. “Blogs give us the freedom to say things that wouldn't be published in the mainstream media, and the safety of anonymity,” she says. In a country like India, they may also prove more effective than their counterparts in older democracies. It is hard to imagine a blogger who would wish to promote the cause of corruption and bad government.

Technology offers an opening, too, to outfits such as Lok Satta, a clean-government campaign run by a formidable, Economist-wielding doctor called J.P. Narayan. It has recently celebrated its first electoral victory, in municipal elections in Mumbai. Its candidate, an energetic entrepreneur and community activist called Adolf D'Souza, campaigns for decentralisation, transparent online budgeting and public accountability. What made the difference, he explains, was that during house-to-house campaigning he collected voters' mobile phone numbers. That allowed him to send text messages, bypassing the local media which are cosily tied to the established parties.

As you might expect, the place that makes the most advanced use of technology in promoting public participation is America, where officials now invite online comments from outsiders when they draw up legislation on subjects like environmental protection. A Department of Agriculture draft on organic-food standards, for example, prompted more than 250,000 comments. Yet the expertise mostly comes from a narrow range of specialists.

According to Cary Coglianese, an American e-government expert, imagining that online consultation will breathe new life into democracy “is a bit like imagining that giving automobile owners the ability to download technical manuals and order car parts online would turn a great number of them into do-it-yourself mechanics”. Greater involvement by experts may make for more sensible rules, but it will not turn the system of public administration on its head.

Aux armes, citoyens

The sad truth is that most citizens find government and politics rather boring and think they have better things to do with their time. For outsiders, the online world is obscure and complicated. Similarly, the inherent complexity of government risks blocking the gains that technology can bring. Rupert George, who runs a site called eGov Monitor that enthusiasts find fascinating, explains: “All too often, public-sector investment in technology has been wasted by administrations unable to tackle the cultural change necessary to realise its potential.”

In short, badly managed organisations with computers will stay badly managed. That has been the lesson from private business, and it equally applies to the public sector, where e-government has barely begun to scratch the surface of what is possible. That is reason for disappointment, but also for hope.

Rushing on by road, rail and air

China's infrastructure splurge

Rushing on by road, rail and air

Feb 14th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

China's race to build roads, railways and airports speeds ahead. Democracy, says an official, would sacrifice efficiency



“IT'S like approaching the Forbidden City, it's absolutely incredible.” The adjective is one that Mouzhan Majidi, chief executive of Foster + Partners, liberally attaches to Beijing's new airport terminal, designed by his British firm. The world's largest, designed in the gently sinuous form of a Chinese dragon, it was planned and built in four years by an army of 50,000 workers. “The columns on the outside are red and you see them marching for miles and miles,” says Mr Majidi.

A little hyperbole is understandable. The terminal is 3km (1.8 miles) long. The floor space is 17% bigger than all the terminals at London's Heathrow combined (including about-to-open Terminal Five). Chinese officials like the Forbidden City analogy. Just as the towering vermilion walls and golden roofs of the imperial palace inspire visitors with awe, China wants its golden-roofed terminal to impress those arriving for the Olympic games in August. Part of a $3.8 billion expansion, which included the opening of a third runway in October, it is due to open on February 29th, weeks ahead of schedule.

The new terminal is not merely window-dressing for foreigners. Beijing badly needs to expand its handling capacity. In 2002 the airport ranked 26th in passenger numbers worldwide. Now it is the ninth busiest. China's rapid economic growth and equally rapid integration into the global economic system is putting huge strains on its infrastructure. This has led to a spate of spending on transport. Between 2001 and the end of 2005 more was spent on roads, railways and other fixed assets than was spent in the previous 50 years. According to the state media, investment will see double-digit growth every year for the rest of the decade. Between 2006 and 2010, $200 billion is expected to be invested in railways alone, four times more than in the previous five years.

Superlatives abound. The world's longest sea-crossing bridge is due to open in June: a 36km six-lane highway across Hangzhou Bay (about the same length as the undersea portion of the Channel Tunnel linking Britain and France). This will halve travel time between two of China's busiest ports, Ningbo and Shanghai, to about two hours. Shanghai itself is home to the current world-record holder for such a structure, the 32km Donghai bridge. This was opened less than three years ago to link the city with Yangshan port, now being built on two flattened islands. Yangshan is intended to be one of the world's biggest deep-water facilities when completed at some point after 2010.

From August the 115km journey from Beijing to Tianjin, its nearest port, will be reduced to half an hour with the inauguration of a bullet-train link, China's fastest intercity rail service. There are big plans for bullet trains. Work began in January on a 1,300km line between Beijing and Shanghai that, when completed in five years' time, will reduce rail time between the two cities from ten hours to five—and thus be a competitive alternative to flying.

At $30 billion, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed line is the most expensive project in China's railway history. But with cash to spare the government, which is reportedly shouldering nearly 80% of the cost (with a consortium of insurance companies providing much of the rest), is pushing ahead after years of debate over what technology to use and how much to spend on it. By comparison China's construction of a conventional line (but the world's highest railway) from Golmud to the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, which was completed in 2006 amid much self-congratulation over its technological accomplishment, cost only $4 billion (or so officials said: infrastructure price tags are subject to little scrutiny in China and overruns are rarely reported publicly).

More prosaic but cumulatively no less remarkable projects abound. Fifteen years ago intercity travel was often a choice between slow, crowded trains or a perilous journey by car or bus on narrow rural roads (flying was for the privileged; until 1993 buying a plane ticket required a letter of authorisation from an employer). But since the 1990s China has built an expressway network criss-crossing the country that is second only to America's interstate highway system in length (see article). By the end of 2007, some 53,600km of toll expressways had been built. The pace of construction will now be slowing a bit, but the aim is to have 70,000km of expressways by 2020. The Ministry of Communications (which is responsible for roads) boasts that China's expressway builders achieved in 17 years what the West took 40 to accomplish.

Oh for the open road

The expressway network has helped divert some of the freight traffic from the overburdened railway system. It has also—to the delight of China's burgeoning car industry but to the horror of environmentalists—helped to promote a sharp increase in private car ownership. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), which financed part of a 660km expressway linking Beijing with Shenyang in the north-east, found that the new toll road was little used after its completion in 2000. Now, says an ADB official, traffic flow (and therefore revenue) far exceeds initial predictions thanks to the growth of industries near the route and the increasing use of private cars for long-distance travel.

It is not just expressways that are getting attention. In 2005 China's leadership launched a programme to build what it called a “new socialist countryside”. This was an effort to assuage discontent in the countryside over the widening gap between rural and urban incomes and public services. The programme includes the planned construction of 300,000km of new rural roads between 2006 and 2010, an increase of nearly 50%.

Investment in railways has been far slower to gather pace. In southern China the worst snowstorms in decades paralysed much of the network in late January and early February. But the rail connections between north and south were already inadequate. Much of the south's coal supply is sent by rail from northern mines to the coast and then loaded onto ships. The World Bank says that China's railways carry 25% of the world's railway traffic on just 6% of its track length.

But change is coming. In the past couple of years investment has grown considerably. This year's target is $42 billion, compared with a total of $72 billion in the preceding five years. World Bank officials call it the biggest expansion of railway capacity undertaken by any country since the 19th century. China had 78,000km of track at the end of last year. The original plan, published in 2004, was to increase this to 100,000km by 2020. Last October this was revised to 120,000km (and officials now say the target will be met by 2015). Even sticking to the 2020 target, this will mean laying 60% more track in the next dozen years than was built since the start of the economic reform programme 30 years ago. Huang Min, the Ministry of Railways' chief economist, says that by 2020 the railway system's freight-handling capacity should be greater than demand. At present, he says, it can handle only 40%.

Mr Huang reckons that railway expansion will bring down logistics costs, which he says amount to 18% of GDP in China compared with 10% in America. It will also help reduce pollution, he says, since fewer polluting lorries will be needed.

Aviation facilities will expand rapidly too. The increase in air passenger traffic has been dramatic: from 7m passengers in 1985 to over 185m in 2007. To deal with this rise, the government announced last month that it planned to add another 97 airports by 2020 to the 142 China had at the end of 2006. The number with an annual handling capacity of over 30m passengers will grow from three to 13.

There will also be a huge expansion of seaport capacity. The government predicts container throughput will increase by 85% between 2010 and 2020.

In all this activity it greatly helps to have a secretive planning bureaucracy and a government that brooks little dissent. In Britain, as Mr Majidi points out, it took as long to conduct a public inquiry into the proposed construction of Heathrow's Terminal Five as it took to build Beijing's new airport terminal from scratch.

There was no consultation with the public on the terminal. Nor was there any public debate about the construction of Beijing's third runway, notwithstanding the noise pollution already suffered by thousands of nearby residents. Beijing is now planning a second airport (even with Mr Majidi's terminal, the current airport is expected to exceed its designed capacity of 60m passengers this year, seven years before schedule). The location is being considered in secret. Xu Li, an official at the Ministry of Communications' transport research institute, agrees that China's infrastructure expansion is not as restrained by rules as it is in America. Once a plan is made, it is executed. “Democracy”, she says, “sacrifices efficiency.”

An often heavy-handed approach to land appropriation also helps. For Beijing's airport expansion, 15 villages were flattened and their more than 10,000 residents resettled nearby. But several of the former farmers told your correspondent that they were still barred from the unemployment benefits and other welfare privileges of city dwellers even though their farmland had been grabbed from them. One elderly man said that officials had threatened them with violence if they refused to leave their villages.

No tree-huggers permitted

Another factor is the hazy definition of who owns rural land (see article). Local officials tend to regard it as the government's and readily seize it—often for little compensation. In a recent study of China's transport, the World Bank says that roads are sometimes built expressly for the purpose of converting countryside into revenue-generating urban land. This causes a rapid outward expansion of cities, which combined with a lack of adequate public transport increases dependence on private cars. Beijing's polluted air and congested streets, to which 1,000 cars are added daily, are evidence of the problem.

Some of China's grand plans for the coming years may encounter a bit more resistance. In urban areas a property-owning middle class that hardly existed a decade ago is now growing rapidly. Some of its members are becoming increasingly vocal in their demands for more open decision-making, particularly when it comes to projects that might affect property values.

In China's biggest-ever urban protest against a transport-related project, thousands of Shanghai residents gathered outside the city government's headquarters in January to demand the cancellation of plans to extend a Maglev (magnetic levitation) train line through the city's main urban area. The existing Maglev line was opened with much fanfare in 2003 as the first commercial service of its kind in the world. It provides a 30km ride at astonishing speed, peaking at 420kph, from the city's Pudong airport to a rather inconvenient spot on the city's outskirts. The government wants to link it with the city's other airport, Hongqiao. But many residents along the route say they are fearful of noise and radiation from the trains.

Many also question whether the Maglev will ever be much more than an expensive joy-ride that tourists will take once, just for the thrill of it. Shanghai has had a tendency in recent years to spend big money on projects of questionable value. The billions of dollars spent on Yangshan port and its cross-sea bridge might well have been better invested in expanding existing, and far more convenient, deep-water facilities in nearby Ningbo. The opening of the Hangzhou Bay bridge this year will make Ningbo's port all the more accessible to Shanghai. But cities in China have a poor record of co-operating, particularly when they belong, as these two do, to different provincial administrations.

Olympic swank

A show-off tendency among Chinese urban planners (as well as a dire lack of suburban rail networks) has helped to fuel a rapid expansion of costly underground railways. In some cases, says the World Bank, this is diverting resources away from urgent needs in the bus systems. Two decades ago only two cities, Beijing and Tianjin, had subways (and only three lines between them). Now 15 cities are building them at a total cost of tens of billions of dollars. Beijing and Shanghai are leading the way, spurred on by their desire to impress the world at the Olympic games and, in Shanghai's case, the World Expo which it will host in 2010. Beijing's official Olympics website displays a story saying that the city will have the biggest underground network in the world by 2015.

Reuters Not everyone is pleased

Complaints still abound about the way things work. Highways—both expressways and other intercity roads—are studded with traffic-slowing toll booths. China reportedly has 70% of the world's tolled roads and its tolls are the highest in the world (using exchange rates adjusted according to currencies' purchasing power). To cut costs, lorries routinely overload. This helps to make the roads among the most dangerous in the world (89,000 deaths in 2006 by official reckoning; the actual number may be much higher). And it pushes up the cost of maintaining them.

The construction of expressways has been speeded up by making the provinces shoulder the costs. This they readily do, using toll revenues to repay construction loans provided by state-owned banks (the banks happily roll over debts that are not repaid on time). But this decentralisation makes it difficult for the central government to order an end to tolls or impose limits on them. A member of a district legislature in Beijing, Li Shuyuan, has been fighting a high-profile campaign for an end to tolls on one of the city's expressways which has long since repaid its loans. In 2002 she and her supporters won a rare victory by getting the city government to persuade the expressway operator (which the city owns) to reverse a toll increase. But both the government and operator refuse, she says, to budge further.

The railways' problem is that they are still highly centralised and the central government is unwilling to shoulder the whole cost of its massive expansion programme. The Ministry of Railways is also now turning to provincial governments as well as to companies (including private ones) and the stock markets for funds. The ministry's Huang Min says that railways in the booming east of the country could be run “according to market principles”. Investors, he says, will be attracted by the huge pent-up demand and “appropriate” increases in freight tariffs and passenger fares. Sceptics wonder whether the hidebound ministry will give market forces the leeway it says it will. And big fare increases would not go down well with passengers whose complaints about overcrowded, uncomfortable and corruptly managed train services are legion. But talk of reform is getting louder.

Strong political will may have helped what one World Bank adviser calls China's “mind-boggling” pace of rail and road construction. But even the Communist Party's resolve may not suffice for what would be the most jaw-dropping project of all. A plan published by the Ministry of Communications in 2004 mentions, off-handedly, an expressway from Beijing to Taipei (target completion date: 2030). How the road would traverse the 150km Taiwan Strait is not mentioned. Nor does the document suggest how to tackle the even bigger problem of reaching agreement with Taiwan. But government maps of the completed expressway network show it. It would be unwise to rule it out.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Dissertations and These Sites

Here is a list of dissertation and theses search sites I have found. Feel free
to use or adapt the list for your own purposes.

Free Dissertations/Theses Sites

Abes: Agence Bibliographique de l'Enseignement Superieur
http://www.abes.fr/abes/DesktopDefault.aspx?Loupe=Moin Citations to French
dissertations.

Australian Digital Theses Program http://adt.caul.edu.au This site provides both
citation and full-text access to a few thousand theses and dissertations
published in Australia.

The British Library http://www.bl.uk/services/bsds/dsc/theses.html The British
Library provides access to citations of theses from British universities (most
doctoral theses from the early 1970s onward), from the United States (475,000
doctoral theses), and from Canada (several hundred doctoral theses from 1980
forward).

Center for Research Libraries http://www.crl.edu Twenty thousand doctoral
dissertations from outside of the United States and Canada are searchable from
this site. Items can be ordered through ILL by students, faculty, and staff.

Cybertheses http://www.cybertheses.org/cybertheses/cybertheses.html Cybertheses
allows access to citations of French dissertations from 1972 to the present.

Digital Library and Archives http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses Digital Library
and Archives allows searching for citations and abstracts of over 6,700 theses
and dissertations. Free full-text access is provided for over 4,500 of these
items.

Directory of Dissertations in Progress
http://www.historians.org/pubs/dissertations/index.cfm "The Directory contains
3,804 dissertations in progress at 170 academic departments in Canada and the
U.S." This is a citation database of dissertations in progress in the area of
history.

Dissertation.com http://www.dissertation.com Dissertation.com has just a few
hundred dissertations and theses in its collection, but the site allows free,
full-text access to the first twenty-five pages of each item.

Doctoral Dissertations in Musicology http://www.music.indiana.edu/ddm This is an
international database of citations for dissertations in musicology that
contains over 12,000 records. Dissertations are from approximately 1950 to the
present.

NDLTD - Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
http://www.ndltd.org NDLTD provides access to citations from thousands of
digital dissertations and theses that are in PDF format. A significant number
of these resources are freely available in full-text and can be viewed online.

PhdData: The Universal Index of Dissertations in Progress http://www.phddata.org
PhdData has citations from several thousand dissertations in progress from
various parts of the world.

Proquest Digital Dissertations http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations Proquest
provides the past two years of citations and abstracts in their Digital
Dissertations database at no cost.

Theses Canada Portal http://www.collectionscanada.ca/thesescanada/index-e.html
Theses Canada provides access to bibliographic citations for all the theses in
the National Library of Canada Theses Collection. Access to full-text theses is
available for all items published between January 1, 1998 to August 31, 2002.

Theses Link Collection http://www.mkengel.de/thesis/thesis.htm This site gives
links to dissertation/theses search sites in many different countries, including
Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway.

TREN: Theological Research Exchange Network http://www.tren.com TREN provides
citations to 6,800 theological theses/dissertations and conference papers.
Items can then be purchased through this site. The opening page actually states
that they have 10,000 theses/dissertations, but the search page allows searching
of 6,800 items.