Top 10 Inventions Needed - Future Technology

This was a wish list that was originally intended to provide inspiration for inventors. First written in April of 1997, I thought it might be fun to follow-up each year and find out if anyone has been working on these ideas for future technology. I have included websites for you to "check out" inventions that are, are close to, or kinda close to what I am hoping will soon exist in the technology available to us presently.

1. Future Technology - Free Energy

I want my energy bill to come only once, not every month. So be it solar or electro-magnetic, please make it personal and portable with batteries that keep going and going.

Check out - D.O.E. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

2. Future Technology - Transporter

What kind of technology is required to scramble a person's atoms and send them for regrouping in foreign lands all in the blink of an eye? Imagine, I could work in Tokyo and sleep in Paris. Beam me up.

Check out - Quantum Teleportation or Scientists Report 'Teleported' Data

3. Future Technology - Replicator Technology (Stuff for Free)

Every time I saw Captain Picard (Star Trek Next Generation) ordering his Earl Grey Tea or Councilor Troy getting a triple alien fudge dessert from one of those replicators on the Enterprise, it made me jealous. I imagine you could send the dirty dishes back to the void where they came from. BTW, a replicator is a device that uses transporter technology to dematerialize quantities of matter and then rematerialize that matter in another form.

4. Future Technology - Universal Communicator

Forget long distant bills and roaming charges (especially with me working in Tokyo and sleeping in Paris). I want a very small device that lets me talk and see anyone, anywhere and anytime. All for the price of the device and please throw in the ability for universal translation for a modest surcharge.

Check out - Not quite what I meant however, there is Intel's Universal Communicators

5. Future Technology - The Cure

For you name it.

Check out - Curing Brain Diseases by Growing New Cells?

6. Future Technology - Fountain of Youth

As a woman I consider this as a no-brainer desire for future technology. The "Fountain of Youth" was a legendary spring that renders anyone who drinks of its waters permanently young. What is the real future technology that will extend our lives and keep us looking youthful without surgery?

Check out - Scientists discover cellular 'fountain of youth' and Anti-Aging Medicine or Longevity and Anti-Aging Medicine.

7. Future Technology - Protective Force Field

To shield me from the sticks and stones.

Check out - A Force Field for Astronauts?

8. Future Technology - Flying Cars

I want a smooth ride all the way and I hope it's a convertible.

Check out - The Skycar, How Flying Cars Will Work, Flying Cars Ready To Take Off, Flying car more economical than SUV, or Retrofuture.

9. Future Technology - The Battery Operated Butler Did It

What can I say - housework sucks.

Check out - Robotics and Robots

10. Future Technology - The Time Machine

I have a few famous inventors I would love to meet in person and the idea of messing with the time-space continuum is exciting as well.

The Art of War

Sun Tzu's The Art of War is the most famous work on military operations in ancient China. Being the oldest military treatise in the world, it is one of the greatest cultural legacies of the Chinese nation. Only the Prussian Clausewitz's On War may compare with it. But On War (Von Kriege) was written more than 2,000 years later. Therefore, Sun Tzu's The Art of War is a classic on military operations and the most influential in the world today.

In this well-known book, Sun Tzu puts forward many important principles in military operations. He says, "winning a victory and subduing the enemy without fighting is the highest excellence." War is not for slaughter; if you win without fighting, the way you can do so is the greatest military strategy, Sun Tzu in his book stresses, "To attack where the enemy is unprepared and hit when it is unexpected" is another wise observation." Military operations should aim at speedy victory and not prolonged campaigns." "Know both the enemy and yourself, you will fight a hundred battles without danger of defeat." All these principles are, unquestionably, significant even in military strategies in the world today.

The thirteen military essays in The Art of War form a systematic military work. Each essay discusses one problem, but thirteen essays constitute an organic whole, which can never be taken separately.

The Art of War actually discusses how to win, which is not limited to military operations. Its significance has been enlarged to many fields, such as commercial affairs, management, athletic competitions, etc. Everyone who reads it carefully may acquire the key to victory.

The Art of War

Preliminary Calculations

Part 1. Part 2. Part 3. Part 4. Part 5. Part 6. Part 7

Part 1

Sun Tzu said: What is war? It may be described as one of the most important affairs to the state. It is the ground* of death or life of both soldiers and people, and the way* that governs the survival or the ruin of the state. So we must deliberately examine and study it.

*ground: battlefield.
*way: in ancient Chinese language 'way' means law, principle, or reason.

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Part 2
Therefore we should analyse and compare the conditions of ourselves and an enemy from five factors in order to forecast if we will win before the beginning of war. The five factors are as follows: the first is way; the second, heaven; the third, earth; the fourth, generals or commanders, and the firth, law.

What is the way? The way may make the people in complete accord with their ruler in their goals and cause them to share weal and woe fearlessly during the war. What is the heaven? The heaven means day and night, cold and heat, and the sequence of the seasons.

What is the earth? The earth signifies whether the battleground is distant or near, whether the terrain is strategically difficult or secure, vast or narrow, and whether conditions are favourable or unfavourable to the chance of survival.

What is the general or commander? The general or commander may be one who is a high ranking military officer with five virtues: intelligence, trustworthiness, benevolence, courage, and sternness.

What is the law? The law refers to the military establishment, the assignment of officers at all levels, and the allocation and use of military supplies.

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Part 3
Whoever leads soldiers to fight must be familiar with the above-mentioned five factors. Only he who thoroughly understands them can win victory. If he is not well versed in these, he may be defeated. Therefore, in order to analyse and compare the conditions of the opposing sides according to a scheme to determine whether our side will win or not, the following questions should be asked:

Which ruler is the one who is popular with the people?

Which general is the one who has ability?

Which side has the more favourable climate and the advantageous terrain?

Whose discipline is more effective?

Which side possesses military superiority?

Which side has soldiers and officers that are better trained?

Whose system of rewards and punishments is fairer and clearer?

We may forecast the outcome of a battle if we have a careful consideration of them.

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Part 4
The general who adopts my schemes or stratagems will surely win while commanding at the front, and will surely retain his general's position. If he does not adopt my advice, he will certainly suffer defeat at the front, and will not keep his post.

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Part 5
The general, having paid attention to my useful schemes or stratagems, must establish his force which will help him realize his plan. What is force? It means that a general should formulate his tactics according to what is expedient.

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Part 6
Any military operation takes deception as its basic quality. A commander who is competent should pretend to be incompetent, he who is ready to use military force should pretend to delay his action; he whose troops draw near the enemy should make it seem as if his troops were still far away; and he whose troops are far away from the enemy should let the enemy believe he is drawing near. A good commander must offer a bait to allure the enemy who covets small advantages, capture the enemy when he is in disorder, take precautions against the enemy who has good preparation and substantial strength, evade for a time the enemy while he is strong, enrage the enemy who is hot-tempered, pretend to be weak in order to make the enemy arrogant or haughty, wear the enemy out if he has taken a good rest, set one party against another within the enemy if they are united. A commander must understand how to attack where the enemy is unprepared, and hit when it is unexpected. All the above-mentioned is the key to military victory, but it is never possible to formulate a fixed plan beforehand.

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Part 7
It gives a general greater advantage to win to make military decisions in the temple* even before fighting a battle, and less advantage if he makes no military decision in the temple before doing battle. He who plans and prepares carefully will find himself in a favourable position and win victory; he who does so carelessly will find himself in an unfavourable position and win no victory. How much worse off it is for those who do not prepare carefully at all. In this way, we can see clearly who may win and who may lose. *make military decision in the temple: doing battle is a matter of vital importance to the nation , the generals must hold a ceremony for military actions and forecasting the outcome of war.

Data Matrix

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(Redirected from Datamatrix)

An example of a Data Matrix code, encoding the text: "Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia"

A Data Matrix code is a two-dimensional matrix barcode consisting of black and white square modules arranged in either a square or rectangular pattern. The information to be encoded can be text or raw data. Usual data size is from a few bytes up to 2 kilobytes. The length of the encoded data depends on the symbol dimension used. Error correction codes are added to increase symbol strength: even if they are partially damaged, they can still be read. A Data Matrix symbol can store up to 2,335 alphanumeric characters.

Data Matrix symbols are square and made of cells, that is little squares that represent bits. Depending on the situation a white module is a 0 and a black module is a 1, or vice versa. Every Data Matrix is composed of at least two finder patterns or handles and two syncs. Handles are two perpendicular lines, coloured the same way as 1 modules, while syncs are like handles with the difference that they are made of alternating black and white modules. Handles achieve a good alignment with the symbol, while syncs sample modules correctly. If the matrix dimension grows, more syncs and handles are added up to 8 both horizontally and vertically. Symbol sizes vary from 8×8 to 144×144.

Applications

Four symbols

The most popular application for Data Matrix is marking small items, due to the code’s ability to encode fifty characters in a symbol that is readable at 2 or 3 mm² and the fact that the code can be read with only a 20% contrast ratio.

The Electronic Industries Alliance (EIA) recommends using Data Matrix for labeling small electronic components^[1].

Data Matrix codes are part of a new traceability drive in many industries, particularly aerospace where quality control is tight and a black market exists for counterfeit or non-servicable parts. Data Matrix codes (and accompanying alpha-numeric data) identify details of the component, including manufacturer ID, part number and a unique serial number. The United States Department of Defense aims to have all components of every new aircraft identified by Data Matrix codes within a tight deadline.^{[citation needed]}

Technical Specifications

Data Matrix symbols are made up of square modules arranged within a perimeter finder pattern. It can encode up to 3,116 characters from the entire ASCII character set (with extensions). The symbol consists of data regions which contain square modules set out in a regular array. Large symbols contain several regions. Each data region is delimited by a finder pattern, and this is surrounded on all four sides by a quiet zone border (margin).

Symbols have an even number of rows and an even number of columns. Most of the symbols are square with sizes from 10×10 to 144×144. Some symbols however are rectangular with sizes from 8×18 to 16×48. All symbols can be recognized by the upper right corner module being light (binary 0).

ECC200 is the newest version of Data Matrix and supports advanced encoding error checking and correction algorithms (such as Reed-Solomon). This algorithm allows the recognition of barcodes that are up to 60% damaged.

Data Matrix applications

A data matrix on a Mini PCI card, encoding the serial number

Data Matrix codes are becoming common on printed media such as labels and letters. The code can be read quickly by a scanner which allows the media to be tracked, for example when a parcel has been dispatched to the recipient.

For industrial engineering purposes, Data Matrix codes can be marked directly onto components, ensuring that only the intended component is identified with the Data Matrix encoded data. The codes can be marked onto components with various methods, but within the aerospace industry these are commonly industrial ink-jet, dot-pen marking, laser marking, and electrolytic chemical etching (ECE). These methods give a permanent mark which should last the lifetime of the component.

After creation of the Data Matrix code, the code is usually verified using specialist camera equipment and software. This verification ensures the code conforms to the relevant standards, and ensures it will be readable for the lifetime of the component. After the component enters service, the Data Matrix code can then be read by a reader camera, which decodes the Data Matrix data which can then be used for a number of purposes, such as movement tracking or inventory stock checks.

Standards

Data Matrix was invented by RVSI/Acuity CiMatrix [1], who was acquired by Siemens AG in October, 2005. Datamatrix is covered today by an ISO standard, ISO/IEC16022—International Symbology Specification, Data Matrix, and is in the public domain, which means it can be used free of any licensing or royalties.

• ISO/IEC 15418:1999 – Symbol Data Format Semantics
• ISO/IEC 15434:1999 – Symbol Data Format Syntax
• ISO/IEC 15415 – 2-D Print Quality Standard

Object hyperlinking

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Object hyperlinking is a neologism that refers to extending the Internet to objects and locations in the real world. The current Internet does not extend beyond the electronic world. Object hyperlinking aims to extend the internet to the real world by attaching tags with URLs to tangible objects or locations. These tags can then be read by a wireless mobile device and information about objects and locations retrieved and displayed.

System components

Linking an object or a location to the internet is a more involved process than linking two web pages. An object hyperlinking system requires seven components -

Components of an object hyperlinking scheme

1. A physical or virtual tag to identify objects and locations. Some tagging systems are described below. To allow the smaller physical tags to be located they must be embedded in visual markers. For example, the Yellow Arrow scheme [see below] prints SMS tags on large adhesive yellow arrows, which can then be stuck on buildings etc.
2. A means of reading physical tags, or locating virtual tags.
3. A mobile device such as a mobile telephone, a PDA or a portable computer.
4. Additional software for the mobile device.
5. A digital wide area wireless network, such as the existing 2G and 3G networks, for communication between the portable device and the server containing the information linked to the tagged object.
6. Information on each linked object. This information could be in existing WWW pages, existing databases of price information etc, or have been specially created.
7. A display to view the information on the linked object. At the present time this is most likely to be the screen of a mobile telephone.

Tags and tag readings systems

There are a number of different competing tagging systems.

RFID tags

A radio frequency identification device (also known as an 'Arphid') is a small transponder which can be read at short range by a transceiver (reader). Since RFID tags can be very small, they are often embedded in a more visible marker to allow them to be located.

A RFID reader can be added to an existing mobile telephone as a shell. Nokia produce such a shell for their 3220 mobile phone. At the moment few mobiles have RFID capability, but this may change, since such RFID enabled mobiles may be used for cashless payments and other purposes.

From 2005 travelers in the city of Hanau, near Frankfurt, Germany will be able to pay for bus tickets by passing their Nokia phones over a smartcard reader installed on the buses. Other applications for RFID enabled mobiles include swapping electronic business cards between phones, and using a mobile to check in at an airport or hotel. Two RFID enabled devices may also be used to enable peer-to-peer transfer of data such as music, images or for synchronizing address books.

QR Code for "An internet of things"

Graphical tags

A graphical tag consists of an image on a marker, which can be read by a mobile telephone camera. There are a number of competing systems, including open standards like Quick Response QR Codes, Datamatrix, Semacodes^[1] (based on Datamatrix), and barcodes; or proprietary systems like ShotCodes. The design of such coding schemes needs to be rich enough to include lots of information and robust enough for the tag to be readable, even when partly obscured or damaged: tags might be on the outside of buildings and exposed to wear and the weather.

Graphical tags have a number of advantages. They are easy to understand and cheap to produce. They can also be printed on almost anything, including t-shirts. Barcodes are a particularly attractive form of tagging because they are already very widely used, and camera phones can easily read them.

SMS tags

An SMS tag comprises a short alphanumerical code, which can be printed on a marker or chalked on a wall. The Short Message Service is then used to send the code and return a message. Yellow arrows^[2] are an example of this form of tagging.

Virtual tags

In a virtual tagging system there is no physical tag at a location. Instead a URL is associated with a set of geographical coordinates. When a GPS equipped mobile phone enters a particular area the phone can be used to retrieve all URLs associated with that area. The area can be set as a few metres or a much wider area. At the moment few mobiles are GPS enabled and GPS is not accurate in urban areas. The accuracy of GPS may improve when the European Union Galileo positioning system becomes operational.

Text-based

Text-based linking uses the objects natural name or part number. It does require that the user phone be Internet enabled, but it does not require the upload of any software or the need to affix a barcode to the subject object. The name or number of the target object is entered into a cell phone browser pointed at the defined Web portal, such as Yellow arrow and hardlink.mobi, retrieving pre-configured database files.

Applications for object hyperlinking

The object hyperlinking systems described above will make it possible to link comprehensive and editable information to any object or location. How this capability can best be used remains to be seen. What has emerged so far is a mixture of social and commercial applications.

• The publishers of the Lonely Planet guidebooks are issuing yellow arrows, with one of their guidebooks and encouraging travellers to leave tags to stories and comments wherever they go.
• Siemens see their virtual tagging system being used to tag tourist sites, and also leave messages for friends. They also suggest that virtual tags could be used to link advertisements with locations. Geominder also offer a virtual tagging service.
• Nokia have demonstrated that when a 3220 phone with the RFID shell attached is tapped against an RFID-enabled advertisement, a URL can be read and information about the advertised product or service returned to the phone.
• Japanese consumers are able to read barcodes with their mobiles and download comparative prices from Amazon.

Using Semapedia to link from a tag to a Wikipedia article

• Semapedia have created a system for linking physical objects and Wikipedia articles using the Semacode tagging scheme. Graphical tags can be created that link to the URLs of individual Wikipedia articles. These tags can then be attached to the physical objects mentioned in the Wikipedia articles. Reading a tag with a camera phone will then retrieve an article from Wikipedia and display it on the phone screen. This creates the Mobile Wikipedia advocated by Mobile Weblog and Eclectica.
• An alternative to using 2d barcodes is to apply computer vision techniques to identify more complex patterns and images. Companies like Daem, kooaba or Neven Vision develop image recognition platforms to turn any image into object hyperlinks.

• NeoMedia Technologies offers a complete system for linking physical objects to the electronic world. The NeoReader code scanning software transforms mobile phones into universal 2D code readers and provides one-click access to mobile content. It provides interoperability among 2D codes (it reads Data Matrix, QR Code, Aztec Code, EAN/UPC Barcode, and Code 128) and operates on a variety of handsets. By scanning a 2D code from a product package, advertisement, publication, or any other medium, mobile users are able to link directly to a specific web page, even to pages deep within Web sites - bypassing long URLs, search engines and avoiding cumbersome menus.

• Microsoft have developed a system for creating hyperlinks using image matching.

Article

Toward a Global "Internet of Things"

By Steve Meloan, November 11, 2003 In the early 1990s, a small news item in Wired magazine described an obscure software product developed out of the University of Illinois. The application was called Mosaic, and it soon proved to be the "killer app" of the Internet. Within a matter of several years, an entire industry had been built around it and its successors. Mosaic was not the first application of its type, but it delivered a new paradigm of usability to the previously arcane task of "browsing" hypertext links. Another potentially industry-defining technology recently emerged at the inaugural EPC (Electronic Product Code) Symposium, held September 15-17 in Chicago's McCormick Place The gathering marked the official launch of the Electronic Product Code Network, an open technology infrastructure developed by a global consortium of companies and researchers. The EPC network, using tiny RFID (Radio Frequency ID) tags, will enable computers to automatically recognize and identify everyday objects, and then track, trace, monitor, trigger events, and perform actions on those objects. The technology will effectively create an "Internet of things." RFID will fundamentally impact the industries of manufacturing, retail, transportation, health care, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, and government, offering an unprecedented real-time view of assets and inventories throughout the global supply chain. And in the process, whole new vistas (and challenges) will open up to software developers. Evolution or Revolution? Most industry observers agree that the next wave of growth in the technology sector will be outside the realm of the traditional PC desktop. But many think of that growth in mundane terms -- with such things as cell phones and PDAs. In reality, we stand on the verge of an era that will see previously unimagined networked devices and objects. There are already some exciting applications that span the technology spectrum. NASCAR.com offers a Java applet-driven virtual dashboard that displays real-time wireless telemetry from cars during a race -- registering location, speed, RPM, braking, and more. The race cars have effectively become networked devices. Meanwhile, NASA, with the assistance of GE Medical, is now able to monitor real-time medical data (such as blood pressure, respiration, and heart rate) from its Space Shuttle astronauts. Even trees are on the network. Fifty battery powered "micromote" sensors now dangle from UC Berkeley's Mather Redwood Grove, part of a pilot program to monitor the health of groves of redwoods. The sensors register light, moisture, and temperature, enabling scientists to continuously monitor the microclimates surrounding given trees. Such diverse networked "devices" offer concrete evidence of Metcalfe's Law. Robert Metcalfe, one of the developers of Ethernet, formulated that the usefulness of a network increases by the square of the number of nodes (users or devices) connected to the network. (Imagine how useful the telephone system would be if there were only two phones in the world!) "In the future, everything of value will be on the network in one form of another," says John Fowler, Software CTO of Sun Microsystems. "And once they're on the network, we can aggregate data from those diverse devices, and then deliver that data to equally diverse devices -- in informative and compelling ways." And that's exactly what we're seeing today. "Most people think of a PC or a PDA as things connected to the network," continues Fowler. "But here we are connecting trees, race cars, and astronauts to the network. It's going to become a much more seamless spectrum." More about RFID With the official release of the Electronic Product Code Network, we are about to see the "Internet of things" paradigm enter the big time -- the world of mainstream commerce. Looking at the big picture, the term Auto-ID refers to any broad class of identification technologies used in the world of commerce to automate, reduce errors, and increase efficiency. These technologies include bar codes, smart cards, sensors, voice recognition, and biometrics. But the Auto-ID technology currently on center stage is Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). RFID is a generic technology that entails using tiny wireless transmitters to tag individual objects, uniquely identifying them. Such RFID tags allow companies to automatically track objects, trigger events, and perform actions upon the objects. RFID chips have now been made as small as 0.3 millimeters (about the size of a pencil tip). There are a variety of different types -- active (battery-driven), semi-passive (also battery-driven), and passive (driven by the inductive energy of a tag reader). Each has different advantages, disadvantages, and features. Figure 1: An Ant Playing with RFID Chips Figure 2: Passive RFID Tag Architecture Figure 3: RFID Tag Types RFID transponder (transmitter/responder) technologies have long been in operation -- from the key card entry systems used in many corporate settings, to wireless toll booth payment facilities. Such passive RFID tags typically have a range of only several feet; the electromagnetic field emitted by the reader induces a current in the tag/card, causing it to transmit a low-energy wireless response. But such technologies have previously been proprietary in nature, lacking in standards. In order to provide a truly useful "Internet of things," it's necessary to ensure open standards and global interoperability. The Auto-ID Center The Auto-ID Center, founded in 1999, is a non-profit, global research organization, partnered with 103 companies and institutions (representing combined annual revenues of over $1.5 trillion, and hundreds of billions of goods). The center is headquartered at MIT, with sister labs at the University of Cambridge in England, Adelaide University in Australia, Keio University in Japan, Fudan University in China, and St. Gallen University in Switzerland. The founding sponsors of the center -- the Uniform Code Council (UCC), EAN International, Gillette, and Proctor & Gamble -- began with the vision of a world where computers could identify any object, anywhere, instantly. The member companies in the Auto-ID Center now include such major corporations as Coca-Cola, Gillette, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft, Lowes, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Sara Lee, Target, Unilever, UPS, and Wal-Mart. But to realize the Auto-ID Center's vision, it's first necessary to define, build, test, and deploy a global, open infrastructure on top of the Internet. This includes affordable hardware, network and software protocols, and development languages. Sun Microsystems -- with its twenty-year commitment to secure, open, networked, scalable, cross-platform technologies -- is uniquely qualified to play a major role in the Auto-ID Center's work. Since 2000, Sun has chaired the Technology Board and the Software Action Group at the Center. The Auto-ID Center's two major goals have been to lower the cost of the RFID tags and readers, and define the technology infrastructure necessary to effectively employ them in a global, industry-wide EPC network. EPC Code: Improving on UPC At the core of the Auto-ID Center's just-released infrastructure for RFID technology is the EPC code, the numeric data transmitted by a tag. The EPC code is, in effect, intended to be the next generation of the Universal Product Code (UPC), or bar code, that is found on virtually every consumer item today. But unlike the UPC, the EPC is designed to operate not only without "line of sight" (that is, wirelessly), but to uniquely identify each individual object. To foster the widespread use and interoperability of RFID technology, particularly at the level of tagging individual products and packages, cost reduction is of the essence. Tag prices are currently $.20 apiece, but are expected to drop to $.05 apiece. Readers are currently at $2000-$3000, but are expected to drop to $100. Open standards, global adoption, and multi-vendor competition will serve to bring about such competitive pricing. With cost consciousness in mind, the Auto-ID Center has defined several different versions of the EPC spec -- 64 bits, 96 bits, and 256 bits. The diagram below details the 96-bit spec, which provides unique identifiers for 268 million companies. Each company can have up to 16 million distinct object classes, with 68 billion serial numbers within each object class. Figure 4: 96-bit EPC Layout Unlike a UPC bar code, EPC provides for the unique identification of any physical object in the world: The header (8 bits) specifies the EPC's version number. The EPC manager field (28 bits) provides the name of the enterprise (typically the manufacturer). The object class field (24 bits) specifies the class of product (typically the stock keeping unit (SKU). The serial number field (36 bits) uniquely identifies the individual item. The Wal-Mart Effect New technologies come and go; many never quite achieve popular traction. But RFID and EPC are likely to be different. Just a glance at the A-list companies that are partnered with the Auto-ID Center will give you an idea of how broad the interest is in these exciting new technologies. And one need only look back at past technologies to see the catalyzing effect of having major enterprises adopt them. The original patent for bar codes was issued in 1952. It then took twenty years for a standard to be approved; in 1982, only 15,000 suppliers were using bar codes. But by 1987, there were 75,000 suppliers using bar codes. What changed during those few years? Here's what: in 1984, Wal-Mart, the country's largest retailer, began using the technology. Now, fast-forward to the present. Wal-Mart recently notified its top 100 suppliers that they must install RFID tags (for inventory tracking) on all cases and pallets of their products by January 1, 2005. And the remaining 12,000 suppliers are expected to follow suit by 2006. When Wal-Mart speaks, the retail industry listens. Clearly, RFID is a technology whose time has come. Drilling Down The core standards and technologies currently defined by the Auto-ID Center and its partners include: EPC RFID tags Tag readers Savant servers Object Naming Service (ONS) Product Markup Language (PML) EPC Information Service (EPC IS) Object Naming Service Modeled after the Internet Domain Name System (DNS), the Object Naming Service (ONS) effectively matches the RFID tag to information about the tagged object -- by mapping the EPC number code (via IP address) to its associated information on a PML server. Figure 5: EPC Network Summary Product Markup Language Product Markup Language (PML) is XML-based, and intended as a universal standard for describing physical objects in the EPC network. PML is used to store such information as product composition, lot number, date of manufacture, proper usage, proper storage, and more. Using the information stored via PML and the EPC network infrastructure, a retailer can update information as it moves through the supply chain, set triggers to lower prices as expiration dates near, recall products, and so forth. The Auto-ID Center's PML specification consists of PML Core and PML Extensions. PML Core is used to describe data directly generated by the EPC network infrastructure (such as RFID readers and temperature sensors). The PML Extensions are used to describe product and process-related information (expiration dates, shipping information, and so on.). Figure 6: PML Core Auto-ID Sensor Data Savant As its name implies, the Savant element in the EPC infrastructure performs a particular function -- and does it extremely well. With the sheer volume of data likely to be seen in some commercial settings, where an RFID reader may detect a hundred EPCs per second, the data challenges border on those found in processing telemetry. Thus, there has to be a filtering layer between the tag readers and the enterprise network. The Savant sits at the leading edge of the EPC network, providing reader adapters (to accommodate different hardware providers), as well as functionality for smoothing data, correcting duplicate reads, providing business processing rules, and forwarding data up and down the infrastructure. Figure 7: EPC Savant Architecture The current Savant specification defines the Reader Interface, Processing Modules, and the Application Interface. The Reader Interface specifies the interaction between the Savant and various reader devices, principally RFID tag readers. Processing Modules provide specific sets of features, which may be combined by the user to meet the needs of his/her application. The Savant itself is a container for Processing Modules. Processing Modules may interact with one another through APIs that they define. The Application Interface provides the connection to external applications -- existing enterprise applications, new EPC-specific applications, and even other Savants. Sun Technology As the company that recognizes "The Network is the Computer," Sun Microsystems is uniquely positioned to take a leading role in the Auto-ID revolution. In an "Internet of things," Sun's core strengths of security, scalability, and cross-platform compatibility between diverse networked systems have never been more essential. With J2EE, J2SE, J2ME, and JavaCard, Sun offers a complete spectrum of cross-platform computing environments, all the way down to the microchip. On September 16, 2003, at the EPC Symposium in Chicago, Sun announced its newly formed enterprise Auto-ID initiative. Julie Sarbacker is the director of the company's new Auto-ID Business Unit, which will work aggressively with customers and partners to develop and deliver standards-based Auto-ID/EPC solutions. This best-of-breed list of Auto-ID partners already includes Alien Technology, Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, ConecTerra, Gorilla Logic, Manhattan Associates, Provia Software, ThingMagic, Tyco Sensormatic, VeriSign, and Xterprise. Sun's proposed Auto-ID solution architecture includes the Sun EPC Information Server (essentially the Sun ONE Integration Server and Auto-ID specific application components), and Sun EPC Event Manager (Savant), which are in development, and scheduled for release in 2004. Figure 8: Sun's Proposed EPC Infrastructure Critical Mass The use of RFID in industry appears to be reaching critical mass. In addition to Wal-Mart's planned implementation of RFID by 2005, Gillette has reportedly purchased 500,000 RFID tags. With them, they hope to reduce out-of-stock items, cut labor costs, and reduce theft and counterfeiting. Proctor & Gamble's CIO, Steve David, has stated that the company expects to save $1.5 billion annually in supply-chain costs through the use of Auto-ID. Michelin, which manufactures 800,000 tires a day, is considering putting RFID tags in each of its tires. Delta Airlines is testing RFID on certain flights, tagging 40,000 customer bags to reduce loss and make routing more efficient. The U.S. military has placed tags on 270,000 cargo containers and trucks, tracking shipments through 40 countries. And just this month, the United States Acting Under-Secretary of Defense, Michael W. Wynne, spelled out an ambitious plan (a la Wal-Mart) to require its suppliers to use RFID tags on all shipments to the military by January, 2005. Visa is exploring putting RFID tags in smart cards, so people can conduct transactions without even having to open their wallets. The European Central Bank is even considering embedding RFID tags in individual Euro notes, to help combat counterfeiting and money laundering. With such tags in place, banks could count large amounts of money in a matter of seconds. But it doesn't take a civil libertarian to recognize the potential downside of such tag placement. Not only would the last bastion of anonymous commerce fall by the wayside, but a criminal with the proper technology could conceivably detect how much money a person was carrying. With such potential problems, there is clearly a need for a secure technology in the Auto-ID space. The individual players and devices within an Auto-ID network must be verified and trusted -- yet the Auto-ID Center's specifications do not address a security technology. But here again, Sun/Java technology is perfectly positioned, having been designed since its inception with networked security in mind. New Ways of Thinking To meet the needs and challenges of the burgeoning "Internet of things," developers will need to change their notions about what a networked device is -- and how it can be used to provide compelling and profitable services. In short, it's time to think outside of the PC/handheld box. Sun's John Fowler quantifies this evolution in terms of two "megatrends." "Megatrend number one, is that reduced costs have brought with them the viability of connecting almost anything to the network," he explains. "And megatrend number two is that this ubiquity of access will make it so that people's notions about what they interact with will change dramatically. As an application developer, you have to sit back and say, if everything is connected to the network, how will that change the way I process information?" A perfect example of this new way of thinking is found in tagging pharmaceuticals. The obvious use of such tags would be for inventory control. But more forward-thinking developers have already envisioned a hospital application that would tag patients and medications -- making them both implicit devices on the network. An RFID tag reader would detect both objects, allowing the dispensing of that medication only to approved patients. Scaling will be another major development concern in the Auto-ID space. "In the PC world, there's generally just one device per user," adds Fowler. "But when you're putting tags on every package of pharmaceuticals, and on every pair of blue jeans, you have to think on an entirely different scale. It becomes necessary to map a universe of millions, or even billions, of things into a much smaller network of things that have an IP address." Opportunities With some Auto-ID adoption deadlines little more than a year away, the business opportunities are clearly already here. ConnecTerra, a partner company in the Auto-ID Center, is concentrating its development efforts on the Auto-ID space. Believing that in the next decade, tens of billions of autonomous devices and assets will be connected to the network, the company wants to help facilitate this revolution. ConnecTerra provides Java technology-based software infrastructures for what they call the "aware enterprise," allowing companies to connect in real time to distributed devices, and integrating into back-end operations. "We define an aware enterprise as a business that has a visibility and understanding of what's going on in its overall operating environment," says Dave Douglas, ConnecTerra's founder and CEO. "Enterprise computing is within the four walls of the business. Web computing extends out to people through browsers. But the real untapped opportunity is in providing information about what's going on in stores, warehouses, trucks, and customer sites, and then being able to factor that information into your business decisions." In addition to developing Auto-ID infrastructure software, ConnecTerra is targeting what they see as the need for "remote services" in the networked device space. "There's already so much smart equipment out there," says Douglas. "In hospitals, doctors and nurses don't necessarily understand the ins and outs of how to debug the equipment they use." As devices like CAT scanners become increasingly networked, there is the opportunity to remotely monitor and maintain such equipment. And the need for remote services will become all the more imperative as networked devices continue to expand in manufacturing, the supply chain, and retail. "The convenience store of the future will have a smart supply room, smart shelves, smart signs, smart gas pumps, and very smart point-of-sale terminals," says Douglas. "Some of this will be enabled by RFID, but also by sensor technology, wireless networking, and low-cost processing. But in order for this collection of complex devices to deliver reliable business value, it will be imperative to remotely manage and service it from the device manufacturer or the store headquarters. Relying on the store staff for monitoring and upkeep will not be an option." Looking Forward In the fast-paced Auto-ID space, new developments take place nearly every month. In September 2003, the Auto-ID Center premiered its version 1.0 specifications. Those standards are now being put through a ratification process, along with a question-and-answer period for center members. There is no firm timeline for this process, but the official specification documents should be released within the next month. Meanwhile, the Auto-ID Center will soon be passing off its work to a next-generation overseer of the standards work. The original consortium out of MIT led the initial standards-development process, but it was never intended to function as an official standards body. The MIT center helped the member companies and research institutions develop the specifications. But they are not legally authorized, for example, to license and sell unique EPC numbers, or to take over the standards administration and compliance. For this reason, the Auto-ID Center has licensed its technology and specifications to EPCglobal, Inc., a non-profit entity formed by EAN International and the Uniform Code Council (UCC). EPCglobal will be selling the unique numbers, as well as taking over the standards administration and compliance. The group will issue documents and standards, and handle the overall commercialization of these standards as the EPC network enters the big time of mainstream commerce. The Auto-ID Center web site will provide updates in the coming weeks as to the 1.0 specifications, as well as the work of EPCglobal. In the meantime, the site currently offers a free beta version of the center's Savant software (requiring Red Hat Linux 7.x Intel, PostgreSQL 7.1 and above, JDK 1.4.1 and above, and Tomcat 4.0.3 and above). The site also offers an online "Auto-ID Calculator," to allow you to gauge the value of Auto-ID to your business (note: plan to allow 20 minutes). See Also Auto-ID Center (http://www.autoidcenter.org/) Sun Auto-ID Site (http://wwws.sun.com/software/solutions/auto_id/) Auto-ID FAQ (http://wwws.sun.com/software/solutions/auto_id/faq.html) Auto-ID Center's Savant Software (http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_savant_info.asp) Auto-ID Center's Online Tool to Calculate the Value to Your Business (http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_roi.asp) Auto-ID Center's Version 1.0 Specifications (soon to be provided) (http://www.autoidcenter.org/howtoadopt_savant_info.asp) Uniform Code Council (UCC) (http://www.uc-council.org/) EAN International (http://www.ean-int.org/) EPCglobal (http://www.uc-council.org/epcglobal/index.html) EPCglobal FAQ (http://www.uc-council.org/epcglobal/faqs.html) Sun ONE Application Server (http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/appsrvr/home_appsrvr.html) Sun ONE Identity Server (http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/identity_srvr/home_identity.html) Sun ONE Integration Server (http://wwws.sun.com/software/products/integration_srvr_eai/home_int_eai.html) ConnecTerra (http://www.connecterra.com) GE Medical Systems Monitoring Astronauts (http://www.ge.com) "Networked" Redwood Trees (http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/07/28_redwood.shtml)

Future of Transportation - PART II

n the second part of his Future of Transportation series, Shai Agassi discusses the "Technical and Financial Implications" of the model he has suggested in addressing the transportation needs in the 21st century.

Technology and the Financial Implications

Apart from crossing peak oil, another major event happened around 2005 - the emergence of a new generation of batteries - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) - able to sustain more charge cycles and based on safe chemistry that can be put into a car. For the first time the total cost of energy for electric transportation has crossed under the cost of fuel when calculated on a per kilometer basis. The fundamental technology and economic drivers behind these two events will continue to drive the price vectors for fuel and electricity further apart in favor of the electron and battery. Within a decade, the cost of energy for a single year of fuel supply for a combustion car should cost more than the cost of energy for an electric car’s entire life, even when taking the cost of battery into consideration. The “cross-under point” had gone almost unnoticed in the world of automotive design which was focused on the hybrid-car race, yet its effect will change the industry in the most disruptive economic shift ever experienced in history. Cars are not complete products, as they would not provide any function without fuel and variety of services (such as maintenance). As the price of crude oil increased, it drove the price of fuel at the pump higher to become a much larger component of the total cost of car ownership. To illustrate, an average European car costs 12,000 euros to acquire, yet over its 12 years of life will require approximately 30,000 litres of fuel costing roughly 35,000 euros (assuming fuel prices do not continue to increase even further). In other words, we now have a container for energy built into the car - the fuel tank - costing US$ 100 to build; yet our energy costs three times the price of the car.

Contrast that with the electric vehicle where the container for energy, in this case a battery, costs roughly 7,000 euros, yet the electricity to run the car costs 2,000 euros for the entire life of the car. In the aggregate, energy to drive an electric vehicle now crossed under 10,000 euros. Historic trend lines for battery over the last 25 years shows a 50% price per kWh improvement every five years, stemming from technological and process improvements. We have seen similar effects in the chip industry, where Moore’s law predicted chip improvements amounting to 50% reduction every 18 months. Similarly, we see the price of renewable generation declining over the years, to the point where large solar installations cost today 2 euros per Watt, shedding price roughly at the same rate of 50% every five years. Projecting forward to 2015, we should see the cost of the battery and solar generation sufficient for a car reaching combined cost of 5,000 euros. By the end of the decade that price should drop to 3,000 euros with the battery and solar generation both outlasting the car. At some point during the next ten years, the total cost of electric energy (with battery) for a car will equate the cost of fuel for a single year. We predict that at some point in time before that next cross-under point the entire car industry will tip to electric drive as the main design principle for new cars. What is missing for this transformation to happen today? Infrastructure and scale. Consumers simply cannot buy products that are not available. Electric cars as well as all their critical components are produced in small runs, not on commercial scale.

The car industry was caught by surprise with the sharp increase in oil prices as the US makers focused on ever larger SUVs and vans. Even Toyota was surprised with the success of its hybrid Prius line. While the entire industry scrambled to catch up to the hybrid wave, every one of the car majors assuming no new infrastructure will be in place for a pure EV decided not to produce an EV until the emergence of a battery that can last for 10 years and provide enough energy to safely drive a car for 500+ kilometers. Since such a battery is not in existence, ( it is most likely that it will not be there for another 15-20 years) all makers pushed their EV plans into niche solutions focused on fleets of cars that run predetermined routes and come back to home base after 100-150 km, such as postal delivery trucks. It turns out that the solution does not stem from a more powerful battery.

Rather we propose the creation of a ubiquitous infrastructure that can enable a car to automatically charge up its battery when parked, and on the exceptional long drive using an exchange station where an empty battery is replaced with a full on in automated lanes resembling car-wash devices positioned in gas stations across the country. We for the first time look at the car battery as part of the infrastructure system, not part of the car, much like the SIM card inside a cell phone is part of the network infrastructure which is residing inside the phone. Since the car owners do not own the battery they can freely exchange it as needed, not fearing the issue of receiving an “older battery” in exchange for a new one. The collection of park and charge spots across a country or city, together with software that controls the timing for charging the cars, creates a smart grid - synchronized and extending the country’s existing electric grid, matching excess electricity on the grid with the need to charge batteries flattening the demand curve in the process. When we put together the charge points, the batteries, exchange stations, and the software that controls timing and routing we get a new class of infrastructure - the Electric Recharge Grid (ERG). A new category of companies will emerge in the next few years which will install, operate and service customers across this grid - called Electric Recharge Grid Operators (ERGOs).

The business model for such operators will be similar to that of wireless phone operators, and so we can predict that a few years after the ERGOs, we will also see the emergence of virtual operators on top of the physical grid (or VGOs). The economics of large infrastructure operators call for massive investments up front, which can be monetized over years through subscription-based services to consumers. Similarly in this case, once a grid is installed to the degree of sufficient ubiquity in a contained region, car owners will be able to subscribe to a complete commute solution – car, energy and maintenance contained in a singe predictable monthly price. Not only is the price predictable (unlike the case of fluctuating oil prices), depending on the length of the subscription the ERGO can subsidize the cost of acquisition of the car. As the costs of battery and clean electricity will continue to decline over the next ten years, we can easily foresee enough subsidies in the contract to the point where electric vehicles will be given for free to long-term subscribers. Assuming that subscribers will be happy to pay the same amount they pay for fuel and maintenance today, the economics require a contract lasting six years to get a free SUV.

By 2015 that same monthly fee will require a contract lasting four years and in 2020 that contract will already be reduced to three years – the average leasing contract today. Such radical process has happened before in the wireless phone industry, where it is almost expected today that a basic handset will be handed for free with any new subscription. With infrastructure and economics in place the demand curve for such new transportation model will grow exponentially – taking a significant portion of the current global demand for cars, standing at 70 million new cars a year. The supply curve for components and cars will need to scale similarly - scaling an entire set of industries, from batteries to motors and power electronics. To illustrate the rate of growth, today’s Lithium based battery market (working mainly for laptops and cell phones) produces enough batteries to power roughly 100,000 electric vehicles. Reaching a market of 10 million cars (representing only 15% market share) would require a 100-fold increase of annual production capacity globally.

On the other hand, as electric drive trains have less moving parts than the combustion engine and its supporting components, the markets for today’s mechanical auto parts (such as spark plugs and carburetors) will start to decline sharply, as will the market for car maintenance. We will also predict that used car prices will at some point decline sharply, as a result of the availability of cheaper all new clean cars, costing consumers less than the cost of fuel based used-cars. The magnitude of this disruption is discussed towards the end of this document, it will take time, but we believe it is almost unavoidable at this stage. Since we ran out of cheap oil and all new discoveries are in deep oceans or troubled locations in the world, we have now a floor price to the production and refining of oil. That floor price together with climate-related tax policy will make sure that even as demand for fuel subsides in following years as the predicted events unfold, the price of fuel will not be able to go back below the 1 euro per liter at the European pump.

The Future of Transportation - Part I

By Shai Agassi, Founder and CEO, Project Better Place
Published Monday, 4 February, 2008 - 17:37

Climate change, unstable political situations and economic complexities are already affecting the transportation industry. In the first part of a three part series on future of transportation, Shai Agassi explores the current situation.

Projecting the Future of Energy, Transportation and the Environment

In 2005, the world entered the “post peak-oil” era, as predicted by many oil experts years before reaching this situation. The price of oil is dominated by two factors, new discoveries of oil fields and global demand for oil, falsely called production. As the R/P ratio (Reserves to Production) slides we begin to witness sharp price hikes in the futures market for oil immediately affecting the price of fuel at the pump. During the last 10 years, the price of oil shot up from US$ 10 a barrel to well above US$ 80 a barrel, with current predictions more certain of the price crossing US$ 100 a barrel than ever coming back to US$ 50. The oil market is tightly intertwined with the car market, as both products complement one another to produce the “complete product” consumers desire - the freedom of personal commute. With this document we try to project the most probable set of changes in the energy markets and the transformational technologies that exist today and how they will come together to address this emerging oil shortage. The paper will also try to illustrate the potential business, national and regional effects of such transformation to the energy and related industries. It is important to note that as these markets are so complex and interdependent; many other events may happen can accelerate or alter the course of events described here. The technologies that are described here are all present today and no scientific breakthrough was assumed or needed.

Current State

The world depends on oil today as its fundamental transportation energy source. Half of oil production is used to drive consumer cars, commercial transportation (mostly trucks and boats) and air transportation. With the emergence of China as an outsourcing powerhouse, and the Internet as the global e-shopping mall, we have significantly increased the distance our global materials and finished goods travel, requiring more transportation fuels. Even more critical, with the emergence of a consuming middle class in China and India, we have a sharp rise in demand for cars. Those cars in emerging countries drive on congested roads and use cheaper older engine technologies - creating an immense demand for fuel and tremendous amounts of car emissions.

Various solutions have been proposed in recent years, with varying degree of success. Most prominently, ethanol as a short-term fossil fuel replacement and hydrogen infrastructure as a long-term solution, were touted as energy source and distribution mechanisms for our transportation needs. It is the authors’ belief that while ethanol has a very important role to play in the short term it is not a long-term solution at scale for the needs of driving a billion cars, which is the scale of our market within a few decades. Hydrogen on the other hand, is a fundamentally flawed approach due to the negative energy equation underlying the generation, storage and consumption of hydrogen in cars.

To understand the energy flow of fuel we need to understand the following energy/time cycle. Fossil fuel is the result of solar energy mixed with water in plants as we discover it after millions of years. Over the millions of years, the earth’s core energy and pressure concentrate the carbon-hydrogen bonds into high energy density molecules that humans extract, refine and burn (inefficiently) in small car engines.Unlike most descriptors used, we as humanity do not produce oil; we merely discover and surface it. To understand the cycle, let’s examine what happens to crude oil after we have it on the surface. Through the application of an energy intensive process of refining oil we attain its most valuable derivative hydro-carbon molecules - fuels and other petrochemical derivatives (such as plastics). We deliver the fuel through pipes and trucks to gas stations, where cars fill fuel into the car and consume the fuel through a very wasteful internal combustion engine - losing roughly 80% of the chemical energy fuel carries to non-productive heat.

In the process of releasing energy from fuel, we break carbon-hydrogen chemical bonds, creating CO2 as an undesired by-product which is slowly altering our atmosphere, heating our planet in the process. At the surface level fuel produces many other derivative gasses, such as NOx, that cause local pollution and deaths.

To solve our critical global shortage of oil, we must find solutions that do not require the millions of years earth takes to make oil out of plants. Ethanol can be made through direct conversion of plants (mostly sugar cane in Brazil, and corn in the US) into biofuel, cutting earth’s heat and pressure out of the loop. The problem with ethanol is the energy, water (not to mention the shortage of arable land) required to produce a unit of energy is so high today that scaling the solution affects our ability to feed our population. In a sense, we are entering a stage where oil has becomes tightly linked to food in a very dangerous zero-sum game. The manifestation of that link can be seen in sharp price hikes for basic food crops, such as corn, in the US over the last few years. Even worse, in countries like China we are running out of enough clean water for drinking and irrigation (which consumes 80% of our sweet water). The only way to produce more water is through desalination, in essence converting energy into water. As such, converting water into energy is the reversed process to the one desired by nations looking to solve our immediate water shortage. Other problems stemming from the inability to distribute of etha ol through pipes (Ethanol is a corrosive material) had already reduced the appeal of this fuel and prices for ethanol are dropping sharply in the US, despite rises in oil prices.

Hydrogen, on the other hand is not an energy source, rather an energy distribution mechanism. In a sense, we need to produce hydrogen, compress and distribute it, store it in the car without having it stream out of the container (a very complex problem), after which we can run it through a very expensive fuel-cell, where hydrogen atoms (the proton in the atom) combine with oxygen from the air, releasing an electron. It takes four electrons in production of hydrogen atoms to produce a single electron within the fuel cell. In a sense, we lose 75% of the energy we start with if we go through the hydrogen route. Regardless of the technical and economic problems in producing a viable hydrogen infrastructure, it is simply an inefficient process that cannot help us at scale. To understand the fundamental problem of hydrogen, we need to remember that what we want is the electron in the hydrogen atom, yet we seem to attach it to a proton which is 2000 times bigger to produce an inefficient distribution mechanism. The only question is why?

Our proposed solution improves the original solar energy concentration cycle by eliminating the role plants play routing photons from the sun (and their variants - wind and wave energy) into electrons within millions of car. We do so by collecting solar energy (through large scale solar thermal installations), generating electrons, sending the energy directly over the electric grid into an electric battery which powers an efficient electric motor. Motors, unlike engines, do not generate friction or heat, providing 90% + efficiency in converting electricity to motion. Past issues - such as battery cost, distance, speed and battery life have significantly improved over the last decade and the economics have now tipped in favor of electric transportation, as we will illustrate in the following paragraphs. A significant change required is the creating of new class of infrastructure replacing the role gas stations played with combustion engine based cars.

When we convert our transportation from combustion engines to electric motors, build renewable sources for the required electricity (a car needs an installation of approximately 1.2 kW of solar power, or 70% as much wind power) and connect the generation with the car through an intelligent Electric Recharge Grid (ERG) we will create a sustainable transportation energy solution which will go practically forever with no reliance on oil and no emissions.

TECHNOLOGY AND GOVERNMENT

The road to e-democracy

Feb 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition

E-government is only the beginning

Illustration by Allan Sanders

GOVERNMENTS have more or less caught up with what in geek-speak is called “web 1.0”, with the online world largely mimicking the offline world. E-mails replace letters; websites make publishing speedier and more effective; data are stored on the user's computer. A collection of programs, paid-for or pirated, are the essential tools for getting going.

But all this has been overtaken by “web 2.0”, shorthand for the interactivity brought by wikis (pages that anyone can edit) and blogs (on which anyone can comment). Data are accessed through the internet; programs are opened in browser windows rather than loaded from the hard disc; instant messages, often attached to social-networking sites such as Facebook, replace e-mail. Web 2.0 also means free video-sharing on sites such as YouTube and free phone calls between computers. These developments allow information to be shared far more effectively, at almost no cost. That gives great hope to the proponents of e-democracy.

Citizens are not only the state's customers; they are also its owners. The term often used in the jargon of government technology is citoyen, reflecting the French idea of the politically engaged citizen. Technology can amplify and aggregate voices that used to be faint and muffled. Voters used to write letters to newspaper editors and hope they would be published. Now they can blog. Contacting an elected representative has become a simple matter of sending an e-mail.

The story so far is that technology intensifies the democratic process, but does not fundamentally change it. For example, the internet is now a vital way of raising money for political campaigns in America, but it has not supplanted the public meeting. Howard Dean's campaign for the Democratic party nomination in 2004 was a huge success in the blogosphere, but failed to translate into votes in real life. The internet has provided citizens with vastly more information about their elected representatives: their voting behaviour, their sources of finance, their outside interests, the content of every public speech they ever made. But the effects tend to cancel each other out. When each side has heavier ammunition, the battle rages on.

Some e-democracy efforts look like little more than gimmicks. Giving out politicians' personal e-mail addresses does not make them any more likely to read the result. Gordon.brown@no10.gsi.x.gov.uk, or president@whitehouse.gov make the recipients seem more accessible, but the message will probably be answered by a computer. Politicians and civil servants who have tried blogging have found it remarkably difficult to be both interesting and sensible. The spontaneous (and sometimes half-baked) tone of the blogosphere sits ill with the need to sound measured and definitive. Most politicians' blogs tend to degenerate into anodyne travelogues. One senior British official, Jeremy Gould, has an excellent blog on e-government. “We think he's been very brave,” says a colleague, carefully.

Where e-democracy may make a difference is in places where the middle class has become largely disengaged from politics. In India, for example, educated people are much less likely to vote than the rest. Opinion polls suggest that they are disgusted with bad government, but this rarely translates into votes against the incumbent parties.

Yet a few glimmers of hope are appearing. India is developing a caustic and increasingly effective blogosphere. Melody Laila, for example, electronically lambasts the inadequate public services in her native Mumbai, as well as the kid-glove treatment of corrupt politicians in Delhi. “Blogs give us the freedom to say things that wouldn't be published in the mainstream media, and the safety of anonymity,” she says. In a country like India, they may also prove more effective than their counterparts in older democracies. It is hard to imagine a blogger who would wish to promote the cause of corruption and bad government.

Technology offers an opening, too, to outfits such as Lok Satta, a clean-government campaign run by a formidable, Economist-wielding doctor called J.P. Narayan. It has recently celebrated its first electoral victory, in municipal elections in Mumbai. Its candidate, an energetic entrepreneur and community activist called Adolf D'Souza, campaigns for decentralisation, transparent online budgeting and public accountability. What made the difference, he explains, was that during house-to-house campaigning he collected voters' mobile phone numbers. That allowed him to send text messages, bypassing the local media which are cosily tied to the established parties.

As you might expect, the place that makes the most advanced use of technology in promoting public participation is America, where officials now invite online comments from outsiders when they draw up legislation on subjects like environmental protection. A Department of Agriculture draft on organic-food standards, for example, prompted more than 250,000 comments. Yet the expertise mostly comes from a narrow range of specialists.

According to Cary Coglianese, an American e-government expert, imagining that online consultation will breathe new life into democracy “is a bit like imagining that giving automobile owners the ability to download technical manuals and order car parts online would turn a great number of them into do-it-yourself mechanics”. Greater involvement by experts may make for more sensible rules, but it will not turn the system of public administration on its head.

Aux armes, citoyens

The sad truth is that most citizens find government and politics rather boring and think they have better things to do with their time. For outsiders, the online world is obscure and complicated. Similarly, the inherent complexity of government risks blocking the gains that technology can bring. Rupert George, who runs a site called eGov Monitor that enthusiasts find fascinating, explains: “All too often, public-sector investment in technology has been wasted by administrations unable to tackle the cultural change necessary to realise its potential.”

In short, badly managed organisations with computers will stay badly managed. That has been the lesson from private business, and it equally applies to the public sector, where e-government has barely begun to scratch the surface of what is possible. That is reason for disappointment, but also for hope.