Friday, March 14, 2008

The Battle for China’s Good-Enough Market

The Battle for China’s Good-Enough Market

Key ideas from the Harvard Business Review article by Orit Gadiesh, Philip Leung, and Till Vestring

The Idea

Between now and 2030, China will account for one-third of the world’s GDP growth. Yet many multinationals are losing share in this critical market. That’s because local businesses are targeting China’s ballooning cohort of midlevel consumers with reliable, low-cost products that are displacing multinationals’ premium offerings. And the regional upstarts making these “good enough” products plan to use the same strategy to challenge incumbents in other emerging markets.

To defend your China position and prevent local competitors from becoming global threats, say Gadiesh, Leung, and Vestring, consider entering China’s good-enough space. For instance, attack the competition from above by lowering your costs and distributing simplified, reasonable-quality offerings. If you can’t reduce your costs quickly, use acquisitions to gain a toehold in this space.

By managing the risks and opportunities inherent in China’s middle market, you’ll claim your share of this pivotal market. And you’ll strengthen your competitive position elsewhere around the globe.

The Idea in Practice

Gadiesh, Leung, and Vestring offer these guidelines for entering China’s good-enough space:

Attack from Above

Moving to the good-enough segment in China is risky if you’re already thriving in the premium space. For instance, your new offerings could cannibalize your high-end products. To mitigate the risks:

• Analyze the differences between China’s premium and good-enough segments. You may discover strong geographic distinctions you can capitalize on.

Example: GE Healthcare expanded sales of its MRI equipment in China by creating a line of simplified machines targeted at hospitals in China’s remote and financially constrained second- and third-tier cities.

• Determine which capabilities and resources you’ll need to seize opportunities in the good-enough space.

Example: GE Healthcare assigned a special team to observe target hospitals’ operations. Members also talked with administrators and physicians to determine the kinds of medical equipment they wanted, features they needed, possible price points, and required distribution and services. GE then reconfigured its existing networks of sales, distribution, and services to serve this new market.

• Stake claims in the good-enough space to box out emerging local players and global competitors that might be eyeing the same target market. By entering this space ahead of the pack, GE Healthcare defended its position against local upstarts, capturing 52% of the $238 million market in 2004.

Use Acquisitions

If you can’t alter your cost structure or business processes quickly enough to compete with local players, consider mergers and acquisitions.

Example: Anheuser-Busch owned 27% of Tsingtao Brewery, one of China’s largest brewers. It outbid competitor SABMiller to acquire Harbin, the fourth-largest brewer in China. The acquisition enabled Anheuser-Busch to reach the masses while preventing Harbin from swimming upstream.

Note, though, that non-Chinese acquirers are facing tougher M&A approval processes. To increase your chances of gaining regulatory and political approval:

• Draft a compelling business case for the acquisition, citing benefits for local companies and authorities.
• Be willing to adjust the structure, terms, and conditions of the deal.
• Engage in heavy-duty relationship building, to woo critical players.

Also, to ensure that each acquisition delivers the maximum possible value:

• Select a target company that offers cost and distribution synergies with your firm and whose products won’t cannibalize your premium brands.
• Overinvest in the due diligence process.
• Take a systematic approach to postmerger integration.

Das heimliche Autoland

Bremerhaven

Das heimliche Autoland

Von Boris Schmidt

13. März 2008 Alle deutschen Automobilhersteller agieren längst als die oft beschworenen „Global Player“. Sie bedienen (fast) alle Märkte der Welt, und sie produzieren in vielen Ländern. Die allgemeine Tendenz, mit der Produktion dort hinzugehen, wo der Markt ist, bringt zwar am Standort Wettbewerbsvorteile. Aber dann wird in aller Regel ein Reimport der eigenen Ware fällig.

Beispiele dafür gibt es genug: VW New Beetle, Mercedes-Benz ML, BMW X5 - alles deutsche Autos, aber „not made in Germany“. Kein Wunder, dass der Autotransport boomt. Die Logistiker kommen kaum mit dem Schaffen von Kapazitäten nach. In Bremerhaven hat man diese Entwicklung nicht verschlafen und in den vergangenen zehn Jahren eine veritable Erfolgsgeschichte geschrieben: Statt einer Million Fahrzeuge - wie noch 1998 - werden jetzt doppelt so viele umgeschlagen.

Jährlich verlassen 1,2 Millionen Neuwagen das Land

Im riesigen Hafengelände (2,1 Millionen Quadratmeter hat das Autoterminal) herrscht ein ständiges Kommen und Gehen: Jährlich verlassen 1,2 Millionen Neuwagen das Land, 800.000 kommen herein. 1300 große Pötte laufen im Jahr den Hafen an, im Schnitt fünf an einem Werktag. Das heißt, täglich müssen 7700 Autos bewegt werden. Fünferteams holen die Fahrzeuge von den großen Schiffen. Einer davon ist dabei der „Taxifahrer“, der die anderen vier vom Schiff zurückfährt oder zum Schiff bringt, je nachdem, ob be- oder entladen wird. Für 1500 Wagen sind rund sieben Stunden nötig. Oberste Maxime beim Ausladen ist - neben dem unfallfreien Fahren -, die Autos so wenig wie möglich zu bewegen, damit die Zahl der zurückgelegten Kilometer später beim Endkunden auf jeden Fall noch einstellig ist.

n den großen Überseefrachtern finden bis zu 6500 Fahrzeuge Platz, eine Asien-Tour dauert ungefähr einen Monat. Nach Amerika geht es etwas schneller. Die Fahrzeuge werden auf 12 bis 16 Decks verteilt und stehen dicht an dicht. Um die reinen Transportkosten für eine Überseefahrt wird gern ein großes Geheimnis gemacht, in der Branche spricht man von weniger als 400 Euro je Einheit.

Schiffskapazitäten und Parkflächen

Für kürzere Distanzen gibt es sogenannte Feeder-Schiffe. Die fahren von und nach Großbritannien sowie nach Skandinavien, immer wichtiger werden Russland und das Baltikum. Manchmal wird gleich umgeladen, ohne Zwischenstopp. Doch das ist der Idealfall. In der Regel lässt der Weitertransport auf Straße oder Schiene meist einige Tage auf sich warten; daher braucht man in Bremerhaven nicht nur Schiffskapazitäten, sondern auch große Parkflächen: Bis zu 120.000 Autos können auf dem Terminal-Gelände abgestellt werden, 40.000 Plätze sind überdacht.

Wer über das riesige Gelände stromert, sieht viele Autos von BMW und Mercedes-Benz (Exporte, aber auch Importe). Als Versendehafen nutzen Bremerhaven zudem Peugeot und Citroën sowie zum Teil der Volkswagen-Konzern. Übrigens ist Emden als Standort eines VW-Werks mit einer Million Exporte (keine Importe) größter deutscher „Konkurrent“ von Bremerhaven. Kleinere Kapazitäten haben zudem Cuxhaven und Hamburg.

Eine Lagerhausgesellschaft, die längst keine mehr ist

Als Einfallstor wird Bremerhaven unter anderen von Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Mitsubishi, General Motors und Suzuki genutzt. Aber nicht alle japanischen Hersteller kommen an die Weser-Mündung. Nissan wickelt seinen Deutschland-Import über Amsterdam ab, Mazda über Antwerpen, Honda über Gent. Toyota war lange Jahre Kunde (und ist es noch), bringt den Großteil seiner asiatischen Autos jetzt aber über Zeebrugge nach Europa.

Erster Ansprechpartner für einen Importeur ist die 1877 gegründete Bremer Lagerhausgesellschaft (BLG), die über ihr Geschäftsfeld Automobile Logistics für das Laden der Fahrzeuge verantwortlich zeichnet. Doch die BLG ist längst mehr als eine Lagerhausgesellschaft. Sie beschäftigt 13.700 Menschen. Bremerhaven/Bremen ist nur einer von vielen Standorten, wenn auch mit 6500 Mitarbeitern der größte. Außer um Autos kümmert man sich noch ums Containergeschäft und die Teilelogistik von Mercedes-Benz. Der jährliche Gesamtumsatz betrug im Jahr 2007 gut 900 Millionen Euro.

Erst in Deutschland im endgültigen Verkaufszustand

Das angestammte Terrain hat man längst verlassen - auch räumlich: So ist die BLG außer in Cuxhaven und Hamburg auch in Gioia Tauro in Süditalien (wichtig als Tor zum südlichen Mittelmeer) und in Koper in der Slowakei als Autoverlader aktiv. Außerdem transportiert man die Fahrzeuge auf der Straße weiter zum endgültigen Bestimmungsort: 450 Lastwagen fahren für die BLG, und selbst Binnenschiffe sind für die Bremer unterwegs. Zählt man alles zusammen, werden 4,9 Millionen Autos von der BLG umgeschlagen.

Letztlich gehören durch geschicktes Zukaufen auch die PDI-Zentren in Bremerhaven zum BLG-Reich. PDI steht für Pre-Delivery Inspection, wobei dieser Begriff etwas in die Irre führt. Zur Inspektion müssen die Autos nicht, wohl aber werden sie gewaschen oder entwachst. Bei manchen sind auch kleine oder größere Transportschäden zu beseitigen. Zudem sind fast alle Importeure dazu übergegangen, die Fahrzeuge erst in Deutschland in ihren endgültigen Verkaufszustand zu versetzen. So werden in Bremerhaven Klimaanlagen eingebaut oder Sonnendächer, oder es wird gar die Stoffpolsterung durch Leder ersetzt. 450.000 Wagen im Jahr werden durch die BLG-PDI geschleust.

Einer der großen Wachstumsmärkte

Für BMW und Mercedes-Benz betreut die BLG die Autos sowohl auf der Ein- wie auch auf der Ausreise. Fahrzeuge, die aus Amerika kommen, werden „aufbereitet“, wobei es nicht nur ums Waschen geht, sondern auch hier kommt das eine oder andere Ausstattungsdetail erst jetzt in den Wagen. Gleiches gilt für den umgekehrten Weg: Als wir in der Werkstatt waren, wurde bei einer S-Klasse gerade die 250-km/h-Limitierung aufgehoben - für einen Kunden in Wisconsin. In die PDI-Abteilungen wird die BLG - die zu 50,4 Prozent der Stadt Bremen gehört - bis zum Jahr 2012 weitere 170 Millionen Euro investieren.

Vor allem der für BMW und Mercedes-Benz tätige Bereich soll ausgeweitet werden. Noch in diesem Jahr sollen 150 neue Arbeitsplätze entstehen. Doch der rührige BLG-Chef Dethloff Aden blickt außer auf den Ausbau des Stammsitzes schon längst weiter über den Tellerrand hinaus. Russland ist einer der kommenden Märkte, zurzeit werden Verhandlungen über ein BLG-Terminal in St. Petersburg geführt. Und ans Schwarze Meer muss die BLG auch. Eines ist klar: Die Logistik von Neuwagen ist einer der großen Wachstumsmärkte.



Text: Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, 09.03.2008, Nr. 10 / Seite V7
Bildmaterial: BLG

Hybrid cars and the power grid

Hybrid cars and the power grid


March 13th, 2008

Today, people who care about the environment are attracted by hybrid electric cars. But in 2020, hybrid cars and trucks might represent 25% of all the vehicles in the U.S. Of course, these vehicles will need to be plugged to the power grid to recharge their batteries. A recent Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) study has evaluated the impact of hybrid cars on the power grid for various scenarios. The study concludes that ‘the growing number of plug-in hybrid electric cars and trucks could require major new power generation resources or none at all — depending on when people recharge their automobiles.’ But read more…

Solar panels to_recharge hybrid cars

You can see above an example of how hybrid electric cars could recharge their batteries in the future. “Solar panels would provide shade and electricity to recharge the batteries of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.” (Credit: ORNL) Here is a link to a larger version of this illustration.

The ORNL study has been coordinated by Stan Hadley, who works for the Cooling, Heating and Power Technologies Program inside ORNL’s Engineering Science and Technology Division.

Hadley said that previous studies about the impact of hybrid cars assumed that owners will charge them during the night. “That assumption doesn’t necessarily take into account human nature. Consumers’ inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. Utilities will need to create incentives to encourage people to wait. There are also technologies such as ’smart’ chargers that know the price of power, the demands on the system and the time when the car will be needed next to optimize charging for both the owner and the utility that can help too.”

So the ONRL study focused on a variety of scenarios. “In an analysis of the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles projected for 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions of the United States, ORNL researchers explored their potential effect on electricity demand, supply, infrastructure, prices and associated emission levels. Electricity requirements for hybrids used a projection of 25 percent market penetration of hybrid vehicles by 2020 including a mixture of sedans and sport utility vehicles. Several scenarios were run for each region for the years 2020 and 2030 and the times of 5 p.m. or 10:00 p.m., in addition to other variables.”

The researchers “found that the need for added generation would be most critical by 2030, when hybrids have been on the market for some time and become a larger percentage of the automobiles Americans drive. In the worst-case scenario — if all hybrid owners charged their vehicles at 5 p.m., at six kilowatts of power — up to 160 large power plants would be needed nationwide to supply the extra electricity, and the demand would reduce the reserve power margins for a particular region’s system.”

As ORNL is part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), this study should be publicly available online. It might be, but I haven’t found it. But a special issue of ORNL Review about Pursuing Energy Options contains a detailed review of it, “Giving Back: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles may have an unexpected value (Carolyn Krause, ORNL Review, Volume 41, Number 1, 2008).

This article says that tomorrow’s hybrid cars “may not only get its energy from the grid but also may give ‘imaginary power’ back to the grid.” What exactly is this ‘imaginary power’? “According to a vision of Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers, the car’s charger would supply the grid with ‘reactive power,’ or non-active power, to help regulate local utility voltage.”

Here are more details about how owners of hybrid cars could give back some energy to the power grid. “DOE also supports research on one way to reduce peak demands on the electric grid: deploy distributed energy resources — microturbines, fuel cells and photovoltaic panels — to provide electricity to both local buildings and the electric grid. The plug-in hybrid could be considered another distributed energy resource, but one that also stores energy.”

Of course, energy utilities have no power — no punt intended — on their customers’ behavior. “Ideally, customers would reduce their consumption of electricity at peak load times in response to market prices or a utility’s request. During hot summers, the demand for air conditioning between 2 and 6 p.m. can boost the peak load to the point that a utility must purchase power from another utility at a higher price. In sharp contrast, the grid on the same night may be so underutilized that energy is sometimes given away.”

But these companies would prefer to see people recharging their cars during nights. “Nighttime battery charging would greatly benefit generation and distribution companies, who normally see their facilities used efficiently for only a few hours each day. Local distribution grids would see a significant change in their electricity usage patterns. For example, early evening charging would probably use a higher proportion of natural gas to coal than nighttime charging, with consequent effects on carbon dioxide and other emissions.”

For more information, you should read a previous ORNL Review article, “More or Less Electricity” (Carolyn Krause, ORNL Review, Volume 40, Number 2, 2007).

Finally, I have a question for today’s hybrid car owners. Do you recharge your car’s batteries during the night or during the day?

Sources: Oak Ridge National Laboratory news release, March 12, 2008; and various websites

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Local Area Network Droids

Local Area Network Droids

IRobot is developing communications robots for the military.

By Duncan Graham-Rowe

Expendable robots that can be tossed into a building or over a wall, much like a hand grenade, are being developed for the U.S. military by iRobot, the maker of the popular Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner. But rather than exploding, these new bots will be used to set up communications networks to assist soldiers in urban battlefields.

The robots, called LANdroids, are being funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) as part of a $3 million three-year research program. The aim is to create expendable robots that will be able to overcome the communications problems that soldiers currently face in built-up areas.

"These robots will be used to allow the war fighter to rapidly deploy, maintain, and reconfigure a communications infrastructure, enabling war fighters to stay connected to their lines of communication in dynamic urban environments," says Chris Jones, research program manager of iRobot, which is based in Burlington, MA.

Existing radio communications networks used by the military work well when there is line of sight, but urban environments can hinder this. Obstacles and structures can reflect, refract, diffract, or absorb the radio signals, leading to signal loss and attenuation. The overall effect is that soldiers often have to work with poor and unreliable radio communications.

The LANdroids will be designed to overcome this problem using an autonomous positioning system that will help the robots adapt the communications networks as needed. To do so, the bots will use the 802.11g Wi-Fi standard to form mobile ad hoc networks that can repair and reroute themselves if, for example, the enemy destroys a robot.

But to meet DARPA's requirements, each LANdroid will have to weigh less than a kilogram and have an overall volume of less than one liter--that's about 10 centimeters long, says Jones. A single soldier should be able to carry more than one unit and be able to easily throw them into position, say, onto a roof. All this will cost no more than $100 per unit.

"It's certainly doable," says Chris Melhuish, director of the Bristol Robotic Laboratories at the University of the West of England, in the United Kingdom. But the biggest challenge will be power management--for example, ensuring that the robots get the best range while maximizing the bandwidth of the communications channels. "If it's too far away, then the bandwidth has to go down," Melhuish says.

Then there is the impact of mobility on the robot's power supply, he says. "Going up and down stairs, being able to peer out of windows--these are things that we take for granted but are difficult for a robot." Robots can do these things, but it comes at a power cost.

Fortunately, DARPA's vision doesn't require stair climbing. In fact, making the robots mobile is not so much to allow them to travel as to enable them to position themselves to get an optimal signal. In an urban environment, where an area can be flooded with multiple signals reflecting off structures, moving a relatively short distance of less than a meter can have a dramatic effect on signal quality.

Even so, the LANdroid will still be required to be smart enough to avoid obstacles and navigate a typical indoor environment, be it concrete or carpet. What's more, it will have to be able to do so at speeds of half a meter a second and be capable of functioning for up to 10 hours. Both requirements could prove difficult to implement in a small robot.

The form and means of locomotion have yet to be decided, says Jones. But, he says, the pace of the robots' development is likely to be rapid. First prototypes could be ready by the end of the year.

Hulu, a Web-based video venture from NBC and News Corp., officially launches

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Hulu, a Web-based video venture from NBC and News Corp., officially launches

By Associated Press


LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Hulu.com, a joint venture between News Corp. and NBC Universal, plans to open its online library of ad-supported TV shows and movies to the public on Wednesday, the company announced.

Users of the service will be able to view more than 250 full-length episodes of shows such as ''The Simpsons'' and ''The Office,'' as well as some 100 movies, including ''The Big Lebowski'' and ''Ice Age.''

Short clips from films and TV shows such as ''Napoleon Dynamite'' and ''Saturday Night Live'' are also available through the service, which is accessible at Hulu.com, as well as on Time Warner Inc.'s AOL site, Yahoo Inc. and other popular Web portals.

The public debut of Hulu, which has been available to a test group by invitation since October, comes as studios seek ways to make money providing ad-supported video online.

The entertainment companies behind the service have been feuding with popular online video sites such as Google Inc.'s YouTube, where unauthorized clips from shows often appear. Viacom Inc., which owns MTV and Comedy Central, is suing Google for copyright infringement.

The Hulu.com programming comes from 50 TV networks, movie studios and Web-based producers of content. Viewers of some movies and TV shows are given a choice of advertisements to watch.

NBC Universal is a unit of General Electric Co.

How to create a fast-growing company

Seed capitalism

Mar 11th 2008
From Economist.com

How to create a fast-growing company


TO UNDERSTAND why America remains the world’s most successful entrepreneurial economy, look no further than AeroGrow International. Housed in a nondescript office building on the edge of Boulder, Colorado, this young company is thinking big: it claims to have created a new product category—kitchen crop appliances, which allow people to grow plants quickly without soil—with potential global sales of (it hopes) billions of dollars.

AeroGrow was started in 2002 by Michael Bissonette, who is a serial entrepreneur—an increasingly important role in America’s system for creating new firms. Mr Bissonette was driven by nothing more than a desire to start another successful company. By taking a technology that had largely been left to scientists and criminals and making it accessible to ordinary consumers, AeroGrow may have found growth where nobody thought it was possible.

 Herbs without a garden

Mr Bissonette previously sold a voice-recognition based remote-control company and a wireless home-security company. Looking for his next big idea, reading journals and chatting with contacts, he became excited about the potential of a technology called aeroponics. Originally developed by NASA, aeroponics accelerates the speed at which plants grow by drizzling nutrients onto their roots, which dangle in the air instead of being planted in soil.

Commercial aeroponics systems have long been available, but they were big, clunky and expensive (at around $900 each)—not consumer friendly. That was because they were bought mostly by the geeky criminals of the crop-production world: people who grow marijuana at home.

They cared neither about the look of the product nor about its effectiveness at growing anything other than cannabis. But with the demand for fresh, organic produce booming, Mr Bissonette saw a potentially huge market for an aeroponics system that looked good, was easy to use, and worked with the kind of crops (tomatoes, strawberries, legal herbs) that home kitchens need.

This proved easier said than done, which highlights two other key characteristics of the successful entrepreneur: persistence and perfectionism. Mr Bissonette had expected to have the new product on the market within a year to 18 months. In the end, it took four years.

Experience had taught Mr Bissonette that “when you launch a new category, you make one mistake and it could be your last chance.” So each new version of AeroGrow's kitchen garden was tested to destruction with people whose fingers were anything but green. “We kept building the best system we could, watched how people would kill their plants, and changed it so they couldn’t kill their plants that way any more,” says John Thompson, AeroGrow's marketing director.

The firm boasts that each seed planted in its gardens has a 99.9% probability of growing successfully. But Mr Thompson says the company is “still trying to figure out what to do about people who put it on their radiator and bake their plants.”

Among the other challenges were finding the most effective way to deliver the nutrient to the roots, identifying plants that would grow in a small enough space to make the garden kitchen-friendly, developing low-energy lighting and automatically adjusting the nutrient for chemical differences in tap water. After solving these problems, the firm spent another six months perfecting the machine’s look.

In 2006 the product was launched. It was marketed using another technique that America’s entrepreneurs have mastered better than anyone else: the television infomercial. AeroGrow's included convincing displays of greens growing twice as quickly in an aeroponics machine as they did in soil.

One obvious problem facing a start-up that launches a consumer product is that there are plenty of big kitchenware firms that can crush an innovator with a branded imitation of the new idea. Mr Bissonette has followed several strategies in the hope of warding off the big boys, at least for a while.

One is to use the “razor and blade” approach that has worked so well for giants like Gillette. AeroGrow’s appliances (the razors) are relatively cheap—now around $150—but the firm makes its real money from selling seeds (the blades) in specially designed capsules that only work with their gardens.

Also, AeroGrow had to get many fiddly things right before it could sell its gardens, which may make it harder for established firms to rush out a copy-cat product. “There are so many processes that the quick knock-off guys aren’t going to touch it,” Mr Thompson explained, “while the people with brands will take two or three years at least to get it right.”

To keep it that way, AeroGrow is continuing to innovate—another lesson that American entrepreneurs learned long ago. Rather than resting on its laurels, it is now working on versions of its product that meet every taste and price range, from a small $29 plastic garden to a $350 cool, metallic version.

It is also adding one- and three-plant gardens to its standard seven-plant version, and has designed a flower garden that allows a plant to be put in a vase for up to 48 hours before resuming its aeroponic growth. AeroGrow’s gardens were sold in around 4000 stores in America last Christmas (up from around 700 in late 2006) and are also available in Britain, Australia and, since last month, South Korea.

AeroGrow’s products consistently occupy a number of the top ten slots among Amazon.com’s bestselling indoor plants. In the final quarter of 2007, AeroGrow’s revenues topped $14m, three times its revenues from the last quarter of 2006. It is approaching profitability.

Mr Bissonette believes annual revenues for the aeroponics industry could eventually rise to $1.5 billion—the sort of vision that could only occur to someone in the grip of entrepreneurial animal spirits. But if he is even close to right, it would be remarkable if the big beasts of consumer electronics or kitchenware did not try to dominate the new product category—though that would probably let Mr Bissonette sell his firm at a juicy price.

Already his mind may be moving on to the next project. Last month, he appointed a new chief executive, a veteran of several leading consumer businesses, to help the firm grow even faster (he says he will remain at the firm in a less hands-on role).

Lest anybody doubt that the product works, look at the behaviour of cannabis growers. The AeroGrow garden is too small for their plants, and anyway the firm does not supply that sort of seed. Nevertheless, a crop of websites has sprouted explaining how to adapt the AeroGrow garden for growing marijuana. No wonder sales keep reaching new, er, highs.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Organic Transistors That Assemble Themselves

A simple way to pattern organic semiconductor material could mean cheap, large, bendable electronics.

By Prachi Patel-Predd

Researchers have found a quick and simple way to make arrays of high-performance electronic devices from organic semiconductor material. The development, led by researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), in Gaithersburg, MD, could lead to a simple, low-cost method to manufacture large, flexible electronic circuits that use organic semiconductors.

The researchers coax organic semiconductor molecules to self-assemble around chemically pretreated electrodes to form field-effect transistors, which are often used to switch pixels on and off in displays. The technique results in an array of transistors that have good electrical properties and are insulated from one another. While the current work was done on a hard silicon substrate, it should be transferable to flexible substrates, says David Gundlach, the NIST researcher who led the work.

Current flat-panel displays, such as liquid crystal displays, are rigid because they use amorphous silicon to make the transistors that control the pixels. Organic electronic circuits could pave the way for roll-up displays: foldable electronic readers, large screens that can be rolled up and tucked into cell phones, and smart bandages that monitor wounds and sense the need for drugs. However, a practical method to cheaply produce high-performance organic electronic circuits has proved elusive.

The new technique, presented in Nature Materials, could be faster, and hence cheaper, than current methods to make flexible circuits. There are several existing ways to make organic circuits over large areas. One is a lithographic technique similar to those used to make conventional silicon chips; this involves coating the entire circuit's surface with the organic semiconductor and then etching it away wherever it is not needed. A more efficient method is inkjet printing, in which nozzles put down liquid droplets of plastic semiconductors in a desired pattern. In fact, two companies that have announced plans to commercially manufacture plastic electronics use these two different methods. (See "Plastic Electronics Head for Market.")

The new method eliminates the need to pattern the semiconductor layer. Once the researchers have patterned the source and drain electrodes using lithography, they dip the circuit in a special chemical to treat the electrode surface. Then they coat the circuit with a thin layer of an organic semiconductor solution.

Near the electrodes, the semiconductor crystals assemble themselves in an ordered way so that they carry current well. Away from the electrodes, however, crystals are randomly oriented so that the material acts as an insulator. "Now we can make circuits without patterning [the semiconductor] at all," says Thomas Jackson, an electrical engineering professor at Pennsylvania State University, who was involved in the work. "We simply spin it on and we're done. We don't have to go through the step of removing the material where we don't want it."

Getting rid of this step makes the manufacturing process significantly simpler, says John Kymissis, an electrical engineering professor at Columbia University. Patterning the semiconductor layer is one of the most delicate steps in making an organic electronic circuit, he says. If any semiconductor material accidentally spans the electrodes of two adjacent transistors, that could allow current to flow between transistors, making the circuit dysfunctional. In a display, for instance, two pixels might go on instead of one. "Even if you print the electrodes, if you don't have to pattern the organic semiconductor, [the process] is going to be faster," says Kymissis. "It is a huge advantage."

Compared with current techniques, the simplicity of the new method should make it more practical to manufacture organic electronic circuits on a large scale, says Natalie Stingelin-Stutzmann, a materials-science researcher at Queen Mary, University of London. "Inkjet is simple, but if you can cover large areas with a simple coating technique, it will be cheaper," she says. "At the end, it is the cost which will determine if organic electronics makes it or not."

Microsoft releases very early version of Internet Explorer 8

SEATTLE (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. gave early testers their first glimpse of its next-generation Web browser Wednesday, and said Internet Explorer 8 will adhere to the same standards as competitors' programs.

Microsoft's browsers, including the current Internet Explorer 7, gained notoriety among Web developers for handling Web page code differently than Mozilla Corp.'s Firefox, Apple Inc.'s Safari, the now-defunct Netscape Navigator and others.

For the most part, major non-Microsoft browsers and outside developers who built Web pages worked with agreed-upon technical standards, while Microsoft was accused of adding proprietary code to those standards. The result: Web pages that looked good in Internet Explorer but broke on other browsers, or vice versa.

At a Web developer conference in Las Vegas Wednesday, Dean Hachamovitch, general manager for Microsoft's Internet Explorer division, made light of Microsoft's past spotty standards and pledged to do better.

Hachamovitch said that in early Internet Explorer 7 days, his kids would hear about broken Web sites and ask, ''Daddy, did you guys break the Web?''

''And most of the time I could honestly say, 'No.' But, you know, Web developers might answer that question a little bit differently,'' Hachamovitch said.

He elicited a laugh, but developers have sometimes had to build Web sites from scratch a second time to devise a version that worked with Microsoft's browsers.

Microsoft said the new version of the browser, when complete, will support industry-standard versions of the code that tells browsers what Web pages should look like, including CSS 2.1, by default.

''That's a big deal,'' said Chris Swenson, a software industry analyst for the NPD Group.

While most Web surfers might not feel a huge impact, Swenson said it will bring ''a sigh of relief'' for developers, who will spend a lot less time tweaking Web pages to work with different browsers.

However, both Swenson and Microsoft note that Web standards continue to evolve, and that definitive tests to determine compliance don't yet exist. Microsoft indicated Wednesday its intention to step up involvement with this process.

Microsoft's decision might also help it fend off a new antitrust investigation in Europe.

Regulators there are looking into whether the software maker held other browsers back by not following open Internet standards. The probe was launched after Norwegian browser developer Opera Software ASA filed a complaint in late 2007.

Microsoft unveiled a few features in the new browser that may appeal more to average Web users. For example, right-clicking on a Web page will give people more ''to-do'' options than they'd see today. Users will be able to ''Send to Facebook,'' ''Map with Live Search'' or ''Define with Dictionary.com'' with a quick click.

Microsoft's Internet Explorer 8 site:

http://tinyurl.com/2t3vsq

3-D Modeling Advance

Researchers at Stanford University have developed a Web service called Make3D that lets users turn a single two-dimensional image of an outdoor scene into an immersive 3-D model. This gives users the ability to easily create a more realistic visual representation of a photo--one that lets viewers fly around the scene.

To convert the still images into 3-D visualizations, Andrew Ng, an assistant professor of computer science, and Ashutosh Saxena, a doctoral student in computer science, developed a machine-learning algorithm that associates visual cues, such as color, texture, and size, with certain depth values based on what they have learned from studying two-dimensional photos paired with 3-D data. For example, says Ng, grass has a distinctive texture that makes it look very different close up than it does from far away. The algorithm learns that the progressive change in texture gives clues to the distance of a patch of grass.

Larry Davis, a professor and chair of the computer-science department at the University of Maryland, in College Park, says that turning a single image into a 3-D model has been a hard and mathematically complicated problem in computer vision, and that even though Make3D gets things wrong, it often produces remarkable results.

Make3D is not the first site to extract a 3-D model from a single image. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) launched Fotowoosh in May 2007. (See "A New Dimension for Your Photos.") But Fotowoosh's algorithm is limited because it labels the orientation of surfaces as either horizontal or vertical, without taking into account such things as mountain slopes, rooftops, or even staircases, says Ng. Based on these restrictive assumptions, Fotowoosh infers the depth of a scene to reconstruct the image.

Derek Hoiem, who built Fotowoosh's algorithm, admits that unlike Make3D, his work does not give a good estimation of depth. "I can say this point [in an image] is a lot further [away from the foreground] than that point, but I can't say that this point is five meters away," he explains. Hoiem developed Fotowoosh with CMU faculty members Alexei Efros and Martial Hebert. (Hoiem is currently a doctoral student at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.)

Saxena says that by knowing the depth values of objects in a scene, Make3D creates a higher-quality 3-D model. In a survey performed by the Stanford researchers in 2006, users preferred Make3D's images twice as often as images created using Fotowoosh.

Hoiem says that he has been trying to extend his work to deal with arbitrary angles, but he has yet to come up with a solution and is "impressed" with the Stanford researchers' work.

To build Make3D's algorithm, the Stanford researchers used a laser scanner to estimate the distance of every pixel or point in a two-dimensional image. That 3-D information was coupled with the image and reviewed by the algorithm so that it could learn to correlate visual properties in the image with depth values. For example, it will learn that a large blue pad is probably part of the sky and farther away, says Saxena. There are thousands of such visual properties that humans unconsciously use to determine depth. The Make3D algorithm learns these kinds of rules and processes images accordingly, he says.


To process an image, the algorithm divides the still image into tiny pieces or segments, says Ng. "It tries to take each of these small pieces and simultaneously figure out their 3-D position, angle, and orientation in the image."

When a new image is uploaded on the site, it only takes a couple of minutes for the algorithm to reconstruct it to a 3-D model and make a movie of the scene. However, the website is not yet optimal, so it takes about an hour for the user to receive an e-mail message indicating that her visualizations are ready. A user can store images and movies in a personal gallery on the site. The researchers are working to connect their site to photo-sharing sites like Photobucket and Flickr, says Saxena.

Make3D can also take two or three images of the same location to create a 3-D model similar to Microsoft's Photosynth application. (See "Microsoft's Shiny New Toy.") But Photosynth is a more expansive project that uses hundreds of images to reconstruct a scene, and when there are that many images to work with, computing the depth of scenes is not as mathematically complicated and is more accurate, says Hoiem. Make3D's focus is on processing single images for the general consumer, who might only take one image of a scene, says Ng.

Alex Daley, the group product manager for Microsoft Live Labs, says that there is a complementary relationship between single-image processors and multiple-image processors: improving single-image processing will ultimately make it easier for other systems to match multiple photos together. "Mixing and matching these for the right set of images will provide the best set of results," Daley adds. (He says that Microsoft is open to working with applications such as Make3D, but the company has not yet spoken with the Stanford researchers.)

Make3D's current algorithm only works on outdoor scenes or landscapes and a few kinds of indoor scenes, such as those that focus on staircases, and it's meant to help users share experiences or relive their own. The researchers are working to extend the algorithm to a broader range of settings so that it can recognize things like humans and coffee mugs and be used to create real-life environments for gaming and virtual worlds. Saxena is also working to incorporate the technology into robots to improve navigation and assist them at carrying out such tasks as unloading a dishwasher.

CMU's Efros says that the work provides a new perspective on the computer-vision problem and will hopefully result in a deeper understanding of how human vision functions.

Multimedia
• See a 3-D model of a building in Amsterdam.
• See a 3-D model of the Trevi Fountain in Rome.
• See a 3-D model of the Pyramids.

Saturday, March 01, 2008

8 Ways to Fast Track Your Warehouse

8 Ways to Fast Track Your Warehouse

By Katrina C. Arabe

Your business is growing, but your warehouse can't keep up. Here's how to boost throughput in your facility without building new capacity:

Wait just a minute before you build a new warehouse. With some process and system improvements, your existing one may be able to handle a significantly greater load, say the pros. For example, Lenox Inc., maker of fine china and kitchenware, took on 17% more volume with 5% less labor at its current facility. And it did so while increasing productivity by over 23%. The trick? A new process that combined a warehouse management system and an automated conveyor to push orders automatically throughout the facility. "We scan bar codes that signal diverters on the conveyor system to send orders to appropriate pick zones, including specialized areas such as gift wrapping," Greg Petro, director of distribution and facilities, tells Logistics Today.

Indeed, getting your warehouse to handle increased business does not have to involve adding capacity. Here are 8 tips to put your facility on the fast track and stop it from getting bogged down:

    1) Improve the flow of inventory. "Time the receipt of goods closer to the time of use," suggests Patrick Sedlak, vice president with Sedlak, in comments to Logistics Today. Another strategy is to let procurement practices dictate how to handle inventory, says Terry Harris, managing partner with supply chain consulting firm Chicago Consulting. For example, if you get stock from your own plant, consider processing smaller, more frequent orders. Also, get rid of dead inventory by offering incentives to sales people, advises Denise Stevens, director of supply chain analytics with third-party logistics provider Kuehne & Nagel.

    2) Stock wisely. Increase the warehouse capacity of a regional warehouse by holding more SKUs in a central warehouse, suggests Harris. "In fact, keeping the expensive items upstream avoids dispersing expensive inventory," he says. Also, consider decreasing the territory coverage of a regional warehouse to get a boost in that facility's capacity, he adds.

    3) Implement technology solutions. Enhance your warehouse's productivity by pursuing technologies such as carousels and voice recognition, says Sedlak. Also, choose your warehouse management system (WMS) carefully. For example, WMS that can support crossdocking, improve the visibility of incoming product, consolidate inventory and pinpoint empty warehouse space can significantly increase a facility's capacity.

    4) Utilize space judiciously. You can improve capacity by examining two issues—time and space, notes Harris. To get the most out of your space, try narrow-aisle storage, Ken Ackerman, president of consulting firm K.B. Ackerman Co., suggests to Logistics Today. "To retrieve goods, use expensive turret trucks or much simpler articulated trucks that bend in the middle," he adds. Also, maximize space usage by building higher racking or adding mezzanines.

    5) Increase hours or shifts. If your warehouse is still unable to handle more business, raise throughput by extending hours of operation—a good way to boost capacity without adding capital investment, says Ackerman. But there is a drawback. "It puts pressure on management to support the seven-day week," observes Sedlak. "Especially in seasonal businesses, you have to carry that extended management all year."

    6) Rearrange space. Examine process flow and storage methods to make sure that you're making full use of your warehouse space. For example, says Stevens, minimize large open spaces. She also recommends utilizing different types of racking if not all of the items are on full pallets. Meanwhile, Ackerman suggests considering more robust packaging if weak packaging is preventing you from piling freestanding goods up high.

    7) Unclog the dock. A common trouble spot in warehouses is the dock area. Says Ackerman, "The easiest, cheapest solution is running totally scheduled docks. Every truck has to have an appointment. It creates a predictable situation." He also recommends live loading and a drop-and-hook strategy for truckload deliveries, in which inbound trailers are dropped in the yard, then brought to the dock by a jockey truck for unloading, and finally returned to the yard.

    8) Enlist specialists. Look into third-party logistics providers (3PLs), who are now offering a broadening range of services. But first, says Sedlak, gain a full understanding of your process so you can thoroughly outline your needs, explain the mechanics to providers and integrate essential reporting procedures.

Source:

8 Ways to Prevent Overloading Your Warehouse
Logistics Today, October 2004
www.logisticstoday.com/showStoryBody.asp?SID=&nID=6638

Saturday, February 23, 2008

A webcomic of romance,sarcasm,math,and language.


A webcomic of romance,
sarcasm, math, and language.


http://xkcd.com

Accident Simulation

talent imitates, genius steals.

Simulation
accident (simulation)
Originally uploaded by kelfoto.

Everything is destined to reappear as simulation. Landscapes as photography, women as the sexual scenario, thoughts as writing, terrorism as fashion and the media, events as television.

Things seem only to exist by the virtue of this strange destiny. You wonder whether the world itself isn't just here to serve as advertising copy in some other world.

Jean Baudrillard, America

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Tracking Humans Through the RFID Ecosystem

ZDNet Asia reports that a project called RFID Ecosystem, where researchers give RFID tags to 50 voluntary participants to put on either themselves on their belongings, is in the works.

The location of the tags will be recorded every five seconds, saved to a database and published to Web pages, ZDNet reports. The tracking, facilitated by 200 antennas, will be constrained to the computer science building within the university.

"Our goal is to ask what benefits can we get out of this technology and how can we protect people's privacy at the same time," UW associate professor Magda Balazinska said in a statement. "We worry that these technologies are being implemented too quickly, and with this system we want to explore it in a controlled environment, to inform the public and policymakers about issues we might face."

New long-range RFID technology from VTT for Chinese road toll

New long-range RFID technology from VTT for Chinese road toll


30.03.2007

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland is developing a traffic and road toll monitoring system based on long-range RFID remote identification technology in China.


The new system could become the foundation for nation-wide traffic and road toll monitoring. The new technology will be first deployed in Wuhan, a city with a population of 7 million. Readers will be installed on each of the city's bridges during this year. The goal is to eventually expand the RFID reading system to cover the entire city and use it for traffic control purposes. Nation-wide adoption of the system would require millions of readers and hundreds of millions of RFID tags.

n Western countries, road tolls utilise either active long-range tags or a GPS-based positioning system. However, passive long reading range UHF RFID enables extremely low-cost technology for road tolls or other traffic applications. It is easier to first commercialise new long-range RFID technology in China before introducing it in the West, since compared with European countries, China has a much more open infrastructure.

VTT will deploy its long-range RFID technology solutions in China through FennoID, a Finnish company established for this very purpose. FennoID is a shareholder in ReadTech, a recently established Chinese company which markets the systems in China and invests in mass production of RFID tags. The company will supply the City of Wuhan with one million RFID tags, with deliveries scheduled to begin before the end of the year. In the first phase, some 100 readers for the road traffic application will be installed on the city's bridges. In the future, the company will also supply RFID tags and systems to the huge and ever-growing Chinese transport and logistics market. The first non-transport applications are designed for personal identification and logistics solutions for the automotive industry.

Low-cost RFID technology offers vast application opportunities, and it is continuously expanding to new fields. RFID technology can also reduce and even prevent counterfeiting of products - drugs, for example - which is a common problem in Asia.

One of the companies currently applying the technology is Mercedes-Benz, where RFID identification of car parts helps speed up production of the company's S-Class cars. RFID identification boosts the efficiency of the entire production process and even extends to maintenance, which is also to the benefit of the buyer. The RFID tags developed by VTT are particularly suited for metal surfaces. In the pilot stage, VTT's tags outperformed - by a wide margin - all other RFID tags tested by Daimler Benz.

Heikki Seppä, Research Professor at VTT, believes it will not take long before tagging technology is used in electronic driving licences and to identify cars - at least in China. Potential RFID applications include parking and speed monitoring systems, road tolls, border clearance and theft prevention. In traffic control RFID identification can be used to clear the way for ambulances and fire engines. The police and the insurance sector have already expressed an interest in the advantages offered by RFID technology. RFID tag technology was originally developed mainly for logistics purposes. According to Seppä, it is essential that the technology is also utilized in transport and payment applications. Thanks to large volumes, the cost of both RFID tags and readers can be brought down to very low levels.

VTT has been actively developing RFID technology for more than ten years and made significant advances in the field globally. For example, the integrated circuit and antenna used in the RFID tag now introduced in China are based on innovations made at VTT. VTT holds several patents related to tagging technology and remote identification.

The Power Of Us

The Power Of Us
Mass collaboration on the Internet is shaking up business

The 35 employees at Meiosys Inc., a software firm in Palo Alto, Calif., didn't know they were joining a gang of telecom-industry marauders. They just wanted to save a few bucks. Last year they began using Skype, a program that lets them make free calls over the Internet, with better sound quality than regular phones, using headsets connected to their PCs. Callers simply click on a name in their Skype contact lists, and if the person is there, they connect and talk just like on a regular phone call. "Better quality at no cost," exults Meiosys Chief Executive Jason Donahue. Poof! Almost 90% of his firm's $2,000 monthly long-distance phone bill has vanished. With 41 million people now using Skype, plus 150,000 more each day, it's no wonder AT&T (T ) and MCI Inc. (MCIP ) are hanging it up.


How can a tiny European upstart like Skype Technologies S.A. do a number on a trillion-dollar industry? By dialing up a vast, hidden resource: its own users. Skype, the newest creation from the same folks whose popular file-sharing software Kazaa freaked out record execs, also lets people share their resources -- legally. When users fire up Skype, they automatically allow their spare computing power and Net connections to be borrowed by the Skype network, which uses that collective resource to route others' calls. The result: a self-sustaining phone system that requires no central capital investment -- just the willingness of its users to share. Says Skype CEO Niklas Zennström: "It's almost like an organism."

A big, hairy, monstrous organism, that is. The nearly 1 billion people online worldwide -- along with their shared knowledge, social contacts, online reputations, computing power, and more -- are rapidly becoming a collective force of unprecedented power. For the first time in human history, mass cooperation across time and space is suddenly economical. "There's a fundamental shift in power happening," says Pierre M. Omidyar, founder and chairman of the online marketplace eBay Inc. (EBAY ) "Everywhere, people are getting together and, using the Internet, disrupting whatever activities they're involved in."

Collective Clamor
Behold the power of us. It's the force behind the collective clamor of Weblogs that felled CBS (VIA ) anchorman Dan Rather and rocked the media establishment. Global crowds of open-source Linux programmers are giving even mighty Microsoft Corp. (MSFT ) fits. Virtual supercomputers, stitched together from millions of volunteers' PCs, are helping predict global climate change, analyze genetic diseases, and find new planets and stars. One investment-management firm, Marketocracy Inc., even runs a sort of stock market rotisserie league for 70,000 virtual traders. It skims the cream of the best-performing portfolios to buy and sell real stocks for its $60 million mutual fund.

Although tech companies may be leading the way, their efforts are shaking up other industries, including entertainment, publishing, and advertising. Hollywood is under full-scale assault by 100 million people sharing songs and movies online via programs such as Kazaa and BitTorrent. The situation is the same with ad-supported media: Google Inc.'s (GOOG ) ace search engine essentially polls the collective judgments of millions of Web page creators to determine the most relevant search results. In the process, it has created a multibillion-dollar market for supertargeted ads that's drawing money from magazine display ads and newspaper classifieds.

Most telling, traditional companies, from Procter & Gamble Co. (PG ) to Dow Chemical Co., are beginning to flock to the virtual commons, too. The potential benefits are enormous. If companies can open themselves up to contributions from enthusiastic customers and partners, that should help them create products and services faster, with fewer duds -- and at far lower cost, with far less risk. LEGO Group uses the Net to identify and rally its most enthusiastic customers to help it design and market more effectively. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY ), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP ), and others are running "prediction markets" that extract collective wisdom from online crowds, which help gauge whether the government will approve a drug or how well a product will sell.

At the same time, peer power presents difficult challenges for anyone invested in the status quo. Corporations, those citadels of command-and-control, may be in for the biggest jolt. Increasingly, they will have to contend with ad hoc groups of customers who have the power to join forces online to get what they want. Indeed, customers are creating what they want themselves -- designing their own software with colleagues, for instance, and declaring their opinions via blogs instead of waiting for newspapers to print their letters. "It's the democratization of industry," says C.K. Prahalad, a University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross School of Business professor and co-author of the 2004 book The Future of Competition: Co-Creating Unique Value with Customers. "We are seeing the emergence of an economy of the people, by the people, for the people."

Peer Production
That suggests even more sweeping changes to come. Howard Rheingold, author of Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution, sees a common thread in such disparate innovations as the Internet, mobile devices, and the feedback system on eBay, where buyers and sellers rate each other on each transaction. He thinks they're the underpinnings of a new economic order. "These are like the stock companies and liability insurance that made capitalism possible," suggests Rheingold, who's also helping lead the Cooperation Project, a network of academics and businesses trying to map the new landscape. "They may make some new economic system possible."

Perhaps they already are. Yochai Benkler, a Yale Law School professor who studies the economics of networks, thinks such online cooperation is spurring a new mode of production beyond the two classic pillars of economics, the firm and the market. "Peer production," as he calls work such as open-source software, file-sharing, and Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN ) millions of customer product reviews, creates value with neither conventional corporate oversight nor market incentives such as payment. "The economic role of social behavior is increasing," he says. "Things that would normally just dissipate in the air as social gestures become economic products."

Indeed, peer production represents a sea change in the economy -- at least when it comes to the information products, services, and content that increasingly drive economic growth. More than two centuries ago, James Watt's steam engine ushered in the Industrial Revolution, centralizing the means of production in huge, powerful corporations that had the capital to achieve economies of scale. Now cheap computers and new social software and services -- along with the Internet's ubiquitous communications that make it easy to pool those capital investments -- are starting to give production power back to the people. Says Benkler: "This departs radically from everything we've seen since the Industrial Revolution."

Sound pretty threatening to anyone invested in the status quo? You bet. Indeed, as the title of Rheingold's book implies, there could be a dark side to this new cooperative force, especially if it results in mob rule. Quite often, the best solution to a problem comes from the sudden flash of insight from a solitary genius such as Charles Darwin or Albert Einstein. It would be a tragedy if these folks, sometimes unpopular in their times, got lost in the cooperative crowds. Clearly, peer production has its limits. Almost certainly, it will never build railroads, grow wheat, run nuclear power plants, or write great novels.

Yet this cooperative force may spread beyond such easily shared commodities as information, knowledge, and media. People are starting to use the Net to pool tangible goods as well. In a sense, Skype enables people to share computer hardware. Thanks to the Web's ability to serve as a meeting ground and scheduling coordinator, it's becoming economical to share cars, for example. Services such as Zipcar Inc. and Flexcar let members use the Net to reserve one of a fleet of autos in crowded cities, almost on demand, for an hourly fee.

What's driving all this togetherness? More than anything, an emerging generation of Net technologies. They include file-sharing, blogs, group-edited sites called wikis, and social networking services such as MySpace and Meetup Inc., which has helped everyone from Howard Deaniacs to English bulldog owners in New York form local groups. Those technologies are finally teasing out the Net's unique potential in a way that neither e-mail nor traditional Web sites did. The Net can, like no other medium, connect many people with many others at the same time.

What sets these new technologies apart from those of the Internet's first generation is their canny way of turning self-interest into social benefit -- and real economic value. They have what tech-book publisher Tim O'Reilly calls an "architecture of participation," so it's easy for people to do their own thing: create a link on their Web site to another Web site they like; rate a song; or just show off their knowledge with an online product review. Then, those actions can be pooled into something useful to many: the 3 billion song ratings that help people create personalized Net radio stations on Yahoo (YHOO )! Inc. or Amazon's millions of customer-generated product reviews, which help decide hits and duds. Exclaims Amazon CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos: "You invite the community in, and you get all this help."

It's surprisingly good help, too. New research indicates that cooperation, often organized from the bottom up, plays a much greater role than we thought in everything from natural phenomena like ant colonies to human institutions such as markets and cities. It's what New Yorker writer James Surowiecki, in his illuminating 2004 book of the same name, calls "the wisdom of crowds." Crowds can go mad, of course, but by and large, it turns out, they're smarter at solving many problems than even the brightest individuals.

The Internet's supreme group-forming capability suggests the rise of an almost spooky group intelligence. Within minutes of Pope John Paul II's death, hundreds of eBay sellers had posted related products for sale. Whether it is responding to world events or new products such as Sony Corp.'s (SNE ) PSP game machine, eBay's hive mind reacts to shifts in demand much faster than traditional companies with layers of management approval. Although eBay recently has seen some mature markets in the U.S. and Germany slow, the group smarts have helped keep growth more than respectable, with gross merchandise sales this year expected to rise 32%, to $45 billion. As eBay CEO Margaret C. Whitman has noted: "It is far better to have an army of a million than a command-and-control system."

More companies are starting to understand the logic. If they can get others to help them design and create products, they end up with ready-made customers -- and that means far less risk in the tricky business of creating new goods and markets. So businesses are accessing the cyberswarm to improve everything from research and development to marketing. Says Alpheus Bingham, vice-president for Eli Lilly's e.Lilly research unit: "If I can tap into a million minds simultaneously, I may run into one that's uniquely prepared."

Procter & Gamble's $1.7 billion-a-year R&D operation, for instance, is taking advantage of collective online brain trusts such as Lilly company InnoCentive Inc. in Andover, Mass. It's a network of 80,000 independent, self-selected "solvers" in 173 countries who gang-tackle research problems for the likes of Boeing Co. (BA ), DuPont (DD ), and 30 other large companies. One solver, Drew Buschhorn, is a 21-year-old chemistry grad student at the University of Indiana at Bloomington. He came up with an art-restoration chemical for an unnamed company -- a compound he identified while helping his mother dye cloth when he was a kid. Says InnoCentive CEO Darren J. Carroll: "We're trying for the democratization of science."

And apparently succeeding. More than a third of the two dozen requests P&G has submitted to InnoCentive's network have yielded solutions, for which the company paid upwards of $5,000 apiece. By using InnoCentive and other ways of reaching independent talent, P&G has boosted the number of new products derived from outside to 35%, from 20% three years ago. As a result, sales per R&D person are ahead some 40%.

The online masses aren't just offering up ideas: Sometimes they all but become the entire production staff. In game designer Linden Lab's Second Life, a virtual online world, participants themselves create just about everything, from characters to buildings to games that are played inside the world. The 45-person company, which grossed less than $5 million last year, makes money by charging players for virtual land on which they build their creations. Second Life's 25,000 players collectively spend 6,000 hours a day actively creating things. Even if you assume only 10% of their work is any good, that's still equal to a 100-person team at a traditional game company. "We've built a market-based, far more efficient system for creating digital content," says Linden CEO Philip Rosedale.

Likewise, groups online are starting to turn marketing from megaphone to conversation. LEGO Group, for instance, brought adult LEGO train-set enthusiasts to its New York office to check out new designs. "We pooh-poohed them all," says Steve Barile, an Intel Corp. (INTC ) engineer and LEGO fan in Portland, Ore., who attended. As a result, says Jake McKee, LEGO's global community-development manager, "we literally produced what they told us to produce." The new locomotive, the "Santa Fe Super Chief" set, was shown to 250 enthusiasts in 2002, and their word-of-mouse helped the first 10,000 units sell out in less than two weeks with no other marketing.

Corporate planners are even starting to use the wisdom of online crowds to predict the future, forecasting profits and sales more precisely. Prediction markets let people essentially buy shares in various forecasts, often with real money. Most famously, they've been employed in the University of Iowa's experimental Iowa Electronic Markets to determine, with remarkable accuracy, the most likely winner of the Presidential election. The ease of organizing groups on the Net has caused an explosion in their use, says Emile Servan-Schreiber, CEO of NewsFutures Inc., a consultant that has run 40,000 prediction markets for companies and publications.

Mob Mentality
Hewlett-Packard Co.'s (HPQ ) services division was having trouble a few years ago with forecasts in the first month of a quarter. So Bernardo A. Huberman, director of HP Labs' Information Dynamics Lab, set up a market with 15 finance people not normally involved in such planning. They bought and sold virtual stock that represented a range of forecasts at, above, and below the official company forecast. Their collective bets yielded a 50% improvement in operating-profit predictability over conventional forecasts by individual managers.

For all the benefits, Net-based cooperation holds plenty of peril for the unwary. Obviously, not all crowds are wise. Even The Wisdom of Crowds author Surowiecki wonders if the Net connects like-minded people so well that it can amplify groupthink. "The more we talk to each other, the dumber we can get," he notes. Groups that discourage independent thought potentially could put a damper on out-of-the-box ideas from brilliant individuals. They can also become herds that buy or dump stocks on momentum alone. For that matter, they can devolve into lynch mobs and terrorist groups.

As companies have learned, the online hordes can quickly turn against them. Last September bike-lock manufacturer Kryptonite tried to downplay a blogger video that showed how to open its bike locks with a BIC pen. But the video instantly spread across the Net, forcing the company to spend more than $10 million on lock replacements.

To contend with this rising people power, corporations will have to craft new roles for themselves and learn new ways to operate in order to stay relevant. They'll be unable to keep secrets for long amid the chorus of online voices, as Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL ) learned when fan sites spilled the beans on unreleased products. Managers and employees will have to learn how to take orders from customers more than from bosses. "Networks are becoming the locus for innovation," says Stanford University professor Walter W. Powell. "Firms are becoming much more porous and decentralized."

The challenges, though, go to show that we're not talking about merely a new capitalist tool -- at least not one that's dominated by big capitalists. Upstarts, both ad hoc groups and new companies, are seizing the initiative far more than are established businesses. They're transforming industry after industry faster than individual companies can cope with.

Nowhere has that phenomenon happened faster than in software. Collaborative open-source development is rapidly moving beyond basic utility software like Linux to mainstream applications as well. An especially eye-opening example is SugarCRM Inc., which provides an open-source version of customer-relationship management software now dominated by Siebel Systems (SEBL ) and salesforce.com Inc. (CRM ) The 10-person outfit's software, which CEO John Roberts calls "the collective work of bright CRM engineers around the world," has been downloaded more than 235,000 times for free.

The company makes money from services such as technical support and a $40-a-month Web-based service, as well as more fully featured corporate software for which it charges $239 per user per year. Scarcely a year old, SugarCRM won't reveal its finances, but its business model suggests a big change in how the software industry works. "The fact that everyone can participate [in open-source] is creating a new market ecology," says Kim Polese, CEO of SpikeSource Inc., a startup providing bundles of open-source products. Or, as Roberts adds brightly: "We're turning a $10 billion market space into a $1 billion market space."

The same scary prospect lies ahead for other information-based industries, such as entertainment, media, and publishing, that are rapidly going digital. People are not only sharing songs and movies -- legally or not -- but also creating content themselves and building sizable audiences. The threat comes from more than the 10 million-plus blogs. Overall, 53 million Americans have contributed material to the Net, from product reviews to eBay ratings, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

The most breathtaking example: Wikipedia. Some 5 million people a month visit the free online encyclopedia, whose more than 1.5 million entries in 200 languages by volunteer experts around the globe outnumber Encyclopedia Britannica's 120,000, with surprisingly high quality. "Our work shows how quickly a traditional proprietary product can be overtaken by an open alternative," says co-founder Jimmy Wales. Unlike Britannica, Wales is not aiming to generate much, if any, revenue. But "that doesn't mean that we won't destroy their business," he notes. Britannica spokesman Tom Panelas says sheer volume of articles isn't a measure of quality and may be overload for most readers and researchers.

Then again, the cooperative crowds offer a lifeline to beleaguered media such as newspapers. The five-year-old online paper OhmyNews in South Korea has marshaled 36,000 "citizen journalists" to write up to 200 stories a day on everything from political protests to movies. Its popularity with 1 million daily visitors has made it the sixth-most influential media outlet in Korea, according to a national magazine poll -- topping one of the three television networks. "It's participatory journalism," explains founder Oh Yeon Ho, who says OhmyNews turned a profit last year. The idea is starting to catch fire in the U.S., too, via independent citizen-media efforts such as Backfence Inc. and Bayosphere and budding initiatives by E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP ) and others. The New York Times Co. is also testing the waters: In March, it bought About.com, which has 475 citizen experts on consumer electronics, personal finance, and other topics.

Even industries that traffic in physical goods are being turned upside down by Net-driven sharing. In retail, for instance, "consumers" are becoming active participants in the merchants they buy from, transforming the venerable suggestion box into something more influential. At Amazon.com, thousands of volunteers write buyer's guides and lists of favorite products. Amazon also lets thousands of merchants, from Target Stores (TGT ) to individuals, sell on Amazon pages.

What's more, Amazon is opening up the technology behind product databases, payment services, and more to 65,000 software developers. They're creating new services, such as the ability to compare brick-and-mortar store prices with Amazon's by scanning a bar code into a cell phone. Thanks in part to such moves, the company is solidly profitable on $6.9 billion in sales last year. "We're all building this thing together -- Amazon itself, outside developers, associates, and customers," says Jeff Barr, Amazon's Web services evangelist.

That raises a key point: All of us will have to take on more responsibility. And to get the most out of the new cooperative tools and services, we'll have to contribute our time and talent in new ways -- such as rating a seller on eBay or penning a short essay in Wikipedia. But the rewards will be more personalized products and services that we don't merely consume, but help create.

Ultimately, all this could point the way to a fundamental change in the way people work together. In 1968, ecologist Garrett Hardin popularized the notion of the tragedy of the commons. He noted that public resources, from pastures and national parks to air and water, inevitably get overused as people act in their own self-interest. It's a different story in the Information Age, contends Dan Bricklin, co-creator of the pioneering PC software VisiCalc and president of consultant Software Garden Inc. in Newton Highlands, Mass.

Instead, he says, there's a cornucopia of the commons. That rich reward may be worth all the disruption we've seen and all the more still to come.

Internet of things: working bibliography

Internet of things: working bibliography

List last updated: 13.04.06

Auto-ID Center: The Networked Physical World: Proposals for Engineering the Next Generation of Computing, Commerce & Automatic-Identification (pdf) (01.10.00)
HP Labs: People, Places, Things: Web Presence for the Real World (pdf) (02.00)

Forbes: The Internet of Things (18.03.02)
Auto-ID Center: Why Technical Breakthroughs Fail: A History of Public Concern with Emerging Technologies (pdf) (01.11.02)

NACS: The Internet of Things (29.01.03)
Auto-ID Center: Public Policy: Understanding Public Opinion (pdf) (01.02.03)
Info World: Chicago show heralds new 'Internet of things' (15.09.03)
Guardian Unlimited Technology: The internet of things (9.10.03)
Digital ID World: RFID and the Internet of Things (pdf) (11.03)
Sun Developer Network: Toward a Global "Internet of Things" (11.11.03)

Computerworld: The State of RFID: Heading Toward a Wireless Internet of Artifacts (11.08.04)
Scientific American: The Internet of Things (10.04)
Business Week: A Machine-To-Machine "Internet Of Things" (26.04.04)
Sterling keynote at SIGGRAPH 04: Keyed to the future (10.08.04)
BusinessWeek: A Vast Web of Tiny Sensors (01.09.04)

Addison-Wesley: RFID: Applications, Security, and Privacy (06.07.05)
CS Monitor: The Web is all around us - even on the walls (07.07.05)
The Boston Globe: The Internet of things (31.07.05)
Bruce Sterling: Shaping Things (09.05)
GovExec.com: An Internet of Things (01.09.05)
IFTF's Future Now: An Internet of Things, or an Internet of Verbs? (02.09.05)
Katherine Albrecht and Liz McIntyre: Spychips (04.10.05)
ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things (17.11.05)
BBC News: UN predicts 'internet of things' (17.11.05)
CIO: Next Big Things: Internet of Things (18.11.05)
BusinessWeek Online's "Voices of Innovation" podcast: Interview with Bruce Sterling (mp3) (13.12.05)
IHT: Wireless: Creating Internet of 'Things': A scary, but exciting idea (20.11.05)

MIT Press: Shaping Things MediaWork Pamphlet & John Thackara's WebTake (05? 06?)
Nicolas Nova and Julian Bleecker: Blogjects and the new ecology of things _ lift06 workshop (pdf) (01.02.06)
Julian Bleecker: Why Pigeons that Blog Matter, or: The Internet of Things is not an Internet of Arphids (17.02.06)
Julian Bleecker: Space, Place and Things — New Rules of Tenancy _within_ the Internet of Things (22.02.06)
Julian Bleecker: A Manifesto for Networked Objects — Cohabiting with Pigeons, Arphids and Aibos in the Internet of Things (pdf) (26.02.06)
Melanie R. Rieback et al.: RFID Viruses and Worms (02.03.06)
Dataweek: The 'Internet of things' said to be the next technological revolution (08.03.06)
BBC News: Radio tag study revealed at Cebit (10.03.06)
Julian Bleecker: Society of the Spectacle (2.0): Surveillance in the Internet of Things (14.03.06)
Nature: 2020 computing: Everything, everywhere (23.03.06)

Wikipedia: An internet of things (n.d.)
Newsweek: An Internet of Things (n.d.)