Thursday, November 20, 2008

From lean to lasting: Making operational improvements stick

From lean to lasting: Making operational improvements stick

By focusing on the “soft” side of lean and Six Sigma initiatives, leading global companies gain substantial, scalable, and sustainable advantages.

For companies seeking large-scale operational improvements, all roads lead to Toyota. Each year, thousands of executives tour its facilities to learn how lean production—the operational and organizational innovations the automaker pioneered—might help their own companies. During the past 20 years, lean has become, along with Six Sigma, one of two kinds of prominent performance-improvement programs adopted by global manufacturing and, more recently, service companies. Recently, organizations as diverse as steelmakers, insurance companies, and public-sector agencies have benefited from “leaning” their operations with Toyota’s now-classic approach: eliminating waste, variability, and inflexibility.

Yet in our experience, organizations overlook up to half of the potential savings when they implement or expand operational-improvement programs inspired by lean, Six Sigma, or both.1 Some companies set their sights too low; others falter by implementing lean and other performance-enhancing tools without recognizing how existing performance-management systems or employee mind-sets might undermine them. Still others underestimate the level of senior-management involvement required; for example, they delegate responsibility for change programs to their lean experts or Six Sigma black belts—practitioners who are technically skilled but often lack the authority, capabilities, or numbers to make change stick.

The broader challenge underlying such problems is integrating the better-known “hard” operational tools and approaches—such as just-in-time production—with the “soft” side, including the development of leaders who can help teams to continuously identify and make efficiency improvements, link and align the boardroom with the shop floor, and build the technical and interpersonal skills that make efficiency benefits real. Mastering lean’s softer side is difficult because it forces all employees to commit themselves to new ways of thinking and working. Toyota remains the exemplar: while many companies can replicate its lean technology, success on the softer side often eludes them.

Some companies, however, overcome the challenges and get more from their operational-improvement programs. Against a backdrop of growing economic uncertainty, their success can be a source of inspiration and enlightenment for industrial and service companies and for public- and social-sector organizations looking to extract greater value from these efforts.

Soft is hard

Making operational change stick is difficult. Operations typically account for the largest number of a company’s employees and the widest variation in skill levels. Units often are scattered across dozens or even hundreds of sites throughout the world, function independently, and have distinct corporate cultures—particularly if M&A has fueled a company’s growth. Each facility may specialize in different products or services and face unique pressures from customers, competitors, and regulators. These factors complicate efforts to design, execute, and scale operational-improvement programs (see sidebar “A better approach to scaling”).

Consequently, many companies emphasize the technical aspects of their programs over the organizational ones. That approach is understandable. Technical solutions are objective and straightforward; analytical solutions to operational problems abound in lean and Six Sigma tool kits; and companies make significant investments to train experts who know how to apply them. What’s more, the tools and experts actually are invaluable in diagnosing and improving operational performance.

Overlooking the softer side, however, drastically lowers any initiative’s odds of success. Some companies, for example, rush to implement the tool kit without ensuring that their employees—including managers—are prepared to work and lead in new and different ways. In such cases, “initiative fatigue” and even distrust may set in, and efficiency gains fizzle out as the black belts move on to other projects.

At times, such an improvement initiative first appears to be successful but is later found to be insufficient to meet the company’s main objectives. An aerospace manufacturer, for example, wanted to increase managing of a product with rapidly growing sales. The company’s lean experts, assigned to plan and run the initiative, quickly identified productivity-enhancement opportunities and began conducting kaizen projects.2 On the surface, the program was working: the number of projects and employees trained in the new approaches—two indicators the company tracked—were increasing. But management’s inattention to the softer side created difficulties.

Since the program’s goals weren’t adequately defined or communicated by senior managers, the experts focused on what they could achieve—primarily easy wins, including technical changes to redesign assembly processes and to improve the effectiveness of certain machines. In retrospect, these changes, while broadly useful, did little to help meet growing demand for the product. Meanwhile, some of the company’s salespeople, long frustrated with what they saw as the shortcomings of the operations group, began circumventing the production-scheduling system in order to speed their own products through the queue. That undercut many of the efficiency gains the experts managed to create.

The result, in fact, was chaos: line workers later showed executives a schedule indicating that one machine, chosen at random, was to perform 250 hours of work during an 8-hour shift. This revelation spurred the executives to refocus the program, investigate the organizational factors behind the difficulties, and ultimately identify much more far-reaching solutions—starting with an effort to get sales and operations to collaborate in setting production priorities and to work together on a daily basis.

Getting started: Set high aspirations

Such examples show that neglecting the organizational components of an operational transformation can delay or even derail it. Top companies, by contrast, attend to the softer elements of an initiative throughout its whole course, starting with the earliest, aspiration-setting phases, when senior leaders identify the key goals and start to communicate them. That helps companies to establish a stronger foundation for change and to set more achievable, and often much higher, ambitions than they otherwise could. A better understanding of the cultural starting point enables top companies to determine where they should focus at the beginning of a program, when to implement its various elements, and how to achieve their goals.

Consider the experience of a North American power generator that used cultural insights to combat skepticism about the scope of the efficiency improvements attainable in a nascent initiative. This kind of doubt is common when companies lack a self-evident catalyst for change—say, a takeover or a looming bankruptcy. The power generator responded by sending its managers to visit a company, in another process-intensive industry, that had recently implemented a lean program. There the managers saw similar improvements in action and heard the enthusiasm that line managers and union leaders expressed for them. That experience was instrumental in helping the managers address their own employees’ uncertainties about how much improvement was possible.

Likewise, greater attention to corporate culture helped a global chemical company launch an efficiency-improvement program across its network of 300 plants. The company’s abiding respect for science and for highly educated experts at first biased managers in favor of solutions based on new technology rather than line-level process improvements. After conducting a pilot project, however, executives saw that about 60 percent of the value it generated came from new work processes, not new and more efficient machines. That realization changed the design of the program and raised its goals—in some cases, by a factor of three. The company now expects the program to have an annual impact of more than $1 billion.

By contrast, companies that misread employee mind-sets and other cultural elements squander time and resources. A large logistics group that tried to overhaul its transport network, for example, overlooked the way years of inadequate capital investment would affect the program’s ramp-up. Why did the company make this mistake? It turned out that the gradual decline in capital spending had, over time, led the company’s maintenance workers to assume that their skills weren’t valued, so the seriousness of many problems had gone unreported. The company’s executives found that the goals of the program were therefore initially unattainable.

Making change happen

After accounting for the way culture and other organizational factors will affect the goals of a program, leading companies put what they learn into action. They reap bigger, more sustainable benefits by balancing the program’s hard and soft elements and developing their line managers’ lean leadership skills.

Take a balanced approach

The experience of a North American distribution company that sought to address higher customer expectations and eroding margins in its network of 70 distribution centers shows the virtues of a more balanced approach (Exhibit 1). The company looked beyond technical changes, to the ways that organizational structures and processes—and even the mind-sets of employees—could affect its ability to meet the goals it set (see sidebar “Managers have feelings too”).

Operations leaders identified labor balancing as an important technical improvement: they planned to create teams that would combine two roles—“pickers,” who located products to fill customer orders, and “packers,” who loaded orders onto trucks. The new system was supposed to increase productivity by redistributing labor more efficiently to meet shifting demand. The company didn’t stop at such technical fixes, however. In parallel, it revamped its performance-management system to encourage the new ways of working. Pickers had been measured quantitatively (primarily on speed, not accuracy), packers qualitatively or not at all, depending on the site. Executives now combined the existing metrics into a team-based system aimed at helping the company’s trucks depart on time. This change not only balanced speed and accuracy but also pushed workers to collaborate and to focus on a common goal. In addition, the company created a prominent visual tracking system to reinforce the new behavior by showing employees, in real time, when shifting workloads required their immediate attention.

Changing the mind-sets of workers proved critical as well. Many workers in both groups, which had viewed each other as rivals, were company veterans who strongly identified with their roles. Pickers had traditionally felt superior, since they typically worked alone and could be quite successful with individualized approaches, whereas packing was more standardized. Recognizing that such factors would breed resentment if ignored, the company provided supervisors with on-the-job training in interpersonal skills—including coaching and the art of having difficult conversations—in the weeks before making the technical changes. The supervisors later reported that the integration and timing of these elements helped the program succeed by instilling in them the influencing skills needed to highlight the new system’s benefits (both to their teams and to individual workers) and to convince doubters that the changes were important. (Often, companies undermine their performance-improvement programs by introducing otherwise useful training elements at inappropriate times—for instance, several months before the implementation of the program, when its goals may not be clear to the trainees.)

Within six months, the distribution centers that had adopted the new system were 10 to 15 percent more productive, on-time deliveries were up 5 to 10 percent, and errors reported by customers were down by as much as one-third. Moreover, a survey of workers found that their satisfaction levels had risen by 10 percent. Subsequent analysis suggested that about half of the productivity gains were attributable to the softer elements and about half to technical changes, such as more efficient warehouse layouts.

Lead through the line

At the heart of most big operational-improvement efforts are a company’s black belts, lean sensei, and other change agents brought in to lead programs, spur new ideas and practices, and champion the mind-set of continuous improvement. Companies typically follow this template because it appears easier than significantly involving their line leadership. Shop floor deadlines are fierce, line leaders are busy, and many of them lack the skills to direct large initiatives. Some executives therefore argue that line managers should focus instead on day-to-day concerns.

Yet that is a mistake. Large-scale change requires all employees—from the C-suite to the shop floor—to think and work differently (Exhibit 2). Companies that use only experts to orchestrate change programs may be fairly successful. Still, by outsourcing the responsibility for initiatives (and, by extension, the underlying ideas) to experts, even their own, these companies often miss significant opportunities. Moreover, once the low-hanging fruit is gone, such efforts often lose steam as employees slip into old habits; experts may convey the new language or technical tools but rarely the desire to change behavior permanently, nor can these experts build the organizational capabilities that permanent change requires.

By contrast, when a company shifts the attention of its line managers away from firefighting, develops their leadership capabilities, and expects more from them, the gains are bigger and longer lasting. Experts still play a vital catalyzing role, of course, but now as teachers, coaches, and counselors. Line managers are better placed to lead change efforts and to serve as long-term role models—and should be held accountable for doing so.

The North American power generator mentioned previously learned this lesson several months into its improvement initiative as executives sought to fire up the program’s momentum. This company had sent its operations experts into field offices, so they could work closely with employees at individual plants, where they had enjoyed significant success. Senior executives, however, observed that enthusiasm and engagement soon started fading among the line workers. In the words of one executive, “They were still coming to work from the neck down.”

Senior executives therefore vowed to move the effort “out of the office and into the line.” The company created a “lean leader” profile—a list of desirable characteristics, such as problem-solving, coaching, and analytical skills. Management then created a curriculum to build them through the “forum and field” approach: hands-on training and coaching forums (on topics such as performance management, time management, and problem solving) followed by practice in real-world applications.

To ensure that everyone understood the permanence of the changes, the company made weekly one-on-one training and coaching sessions a part of its line managers’ jobs. Shift schedules were adjusted to incorporate coaching into the workers’ routines. (While most executives recognize the value of coaching, many fail to institutionalize it, thus unintentionally making it seem less important.) These brief sessions allowed workers to celebrate successes, share ideas, and measure progress in achieving the program’s goals. Soon, employees began carrying index cards listing the improvement priorities they had spotted during the previous week.

The cards and related conversations generated creative ideas—including a new way to keep coal dry when it was shipped to the company’s power plants. These and other line-led improvements helped significantly to raise the plant’s output and, subsequently, to cut its fuel costs. More important, the training efforts enhanced the skills of managers, enabling them to become the foundation for a host of additional improvements.

To get the most from large operational-improvement programs, top companies look beyond the technical aspects of lean and Six Sigma and embrace the softer side. Complementing the development of technical skills with a focus on the organizational capabilities that make efficiency benefits real can help companies to achieve more substantial, sustainable, and scalable results. 

About the Authors

David Fine is a director in McKinsey’s Johannesburg office, Maia Hansen is a principal in the Cleveland office, and Stefan Roggenhofer is a principal in the Munich office.

The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Mallory Caldwell, Stephen Corbett, Aaron DeSmet, Amanda Hansen, Tom Janssens, Jeff Moore, Mikael Robertson, Sarah Wilson, and Carter Wood.

Notes

1While lean and Six Sigma are distinct methodologies, many companies combine elements of the two. In this article, we outline best practices that are equally fruitful in lean, Six Sigma, and related hybrid environments rather than advocate one approach over the other.

2Rapid, concentrated projects aimed at making continuous, incremental, small-scale process improvements at the line level.

How Google's Ear Hears

Thursday, November 20, 2008

How Google's Ear Hears

The new voice-search application for the iPhone marks a milestone for spoken interfaces.

By Kate Greene^ --- from technologyreview.com

If you own an iPhone, you can now be part of one of the most ambitious speech-recognition experiments ever launched. On Monday, Google announced that it had added voice search to its iPhone mobile application, allowing people to speak search terms into their phones and view the results on the screen.

Credit: Technology Review
MULTIMEDIA
video Technology Review tests Google's voice search.

In designing the system, Google took on an enormous challenge. Where an automated airline reservation system, say, has to handle a relatively limited number of terms, a Web search engine must contend with any topic that anyone might ever want to research--literally.

Fortunately, Google also has a huge amount of data on how people use search, and it was able to use that to train its algorithms. If the system has trouble interpreting one word in a query, for instance, it can fall back on data about which terms are frequently grouped together.

Google also had a useful set of data correlating speech samples with written words, culled from its free directory service, Goog411. People call the service and say the name of a city and state, and then say the name of a business or category. According to Mike Cohen, a Google research scientist, voice samples from this service were the main source of acoustic data for training the system.

But the data that Google used to build the system pales in comparison to the data that it now has the chance to collect. "The nice thing about this application is that Google will collect all this speech data," says Jim Glass, a principal research scientist at MIT. "And by getting all this data, they will improve their recognizer even more."

Mobile phones are assuming more and more computational duties; in much of the world, they're people's only computers. But their small screens and awkward keyboards can make text-intensive actions, like Web search, frustrating. While mobile browsers are getting better at predicting your search terms, and thereby reducing the amount of typing, nothing is quite as easy as speaking directly into the phone.

Speech-recognition systems, however, remain far from perfect. And people's frustration skyrockets when they can't find their way out of a voice-menu maze. But Google's implementation of speech recognition deftly sidesteps some of the technology's shortcomings, says Glass.

"The beauty of search engines is that they don't have to be exactly right," he says. When a user submits a spoken query, he says, Google's algorithms "just take it and stick it in a search engine, which puts the onus on the user to select the right result or try again." Because people are already used to refining their queries as they conduct Web searches, Glass says, they're more tolerant of imperfect results. 

Even after the search application loads, the voice-recognition system kicks in only when the user puts the phone to her ear, as determined by its built-in motion sensors. "If you're listening all the time, then you trigger false positives," Glass says. "The typical solution is to make you push a button," but the motion-activated system is easier and more intuitive, he says.

The search application also uses the iPhone's built-in location-awareness system to prioritize results. For instance, if you search for Bank of America, one of the results will be a map of local branches. This saves users from having to include location terms--which can be open to misinterpretation--in their queries.

While Google won't disclose details about how its voice-recognition system works, it probably hasn't done anything too radical, says Nelson Morgan, director of the International Computer Science Institute, in Berkeley, CA. "Nearly everybody who does speech recognition has a system that looks about the same," he says. First, the system analyzes frequency characteristics of the voice input. Then, based on probabilities drawn from a huge number of real-world examples, it correlates them with words. Finally, those words are fed into a language model that uses common combinations or sequences of words to resolve ambiguities. For instance, if you say, "president of the United," it's likely that the next word is going to be "States."

While Google isn't announcing plans to use its voice-recognition technology for other services, the potential is easy to see. "Now we have tech to take spoken words and convert it to text," says Gummi Hafsteinsson, a senior product manager at Google. "There are a lot of options." Currently, there's no way to use your voice to access Google's calendar or e-mail applications or to write an e-mail or a text message. But that could change in the future. "I think this opens up a whole new dimension," Hafsteinsson says.

How many years of healthy living before you die?

Golden years

Nov 18th 2008
From Economist.com

How many years of healthy living before you die?


PEOPLE are mostly living longer, but are those extra years healthy ones? Whereas the life expectancy for men aged 50 in European countries varies by some nine years, the years of healthy life differ enormously. In 2005, an Estonian man of 50 could look foward to just over nine years more of good health (defined as having no limits on activity). In contrast a typical Danish man could expect 23.6 years, according to a new study published in the Lancet, a British medical journal. The gap between East and West in both life expectancy and years spent in good health is considerable.

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DB Schenker rüstet Wechselbrücken in Deutschland mit RFID aus

DB Schenker rüstet Wechselbrücken in Deutschland mit RFID aus

Frankfurt. Die Spedition Schenker Deutschland hat bislang 3500 ihrer 4000 Wechselbrücken mit RFID-Technologie (Radio Frequency Identification) ausgestattet. Damit kann die Bahn-Tochter die Ladungsträger besser identifizieren, verfolgen und noch schneller zur Verfügung stellen. 

Das Unternehmen hat die Brücken mit 868-MHz-Transpondern und seine Geschäftsstellen Landverkehr/Logistik mit den entsprechenden Lesegeräten ausgestattet. Dort wird jede Ein- und Ausfahrt der einzelnen Wechselbrücken elektronisch dokumentiert. Alle Daten der RFID-Transponder gelangen in ein zentrales Portal. Hier werden alle Bewegungsabläufe der Wechselbrücken erfasst. Damit lassen sich auch die Wege einzelner Ladungsträger problemlos zurückverfolgen und dokumentieren.

Die positive Zwischenbilanz: „Wir konnten die Verfügbarkeit unserer Brücken mit Hilfe von RFID deutlich erhöhen“, erklärt Erik Wirsing, Leiter Zentrale Systementwicklung bei Schenker in Kelsterbach. „Dank der automatischen Inventarisierung steht jetzt für unsere Kunden jeweils der geeignete Wechselbrückentyp sowie insgesamt mehr Ladekapazität zur Verfügung. So trägt das Projekt auch zur Steigerung unserer Wirtschaftlichkeit bei. Auch für die Nachhaltigkeit spielt ein möglichst optimal ausgelasteter Bestand an Wechselbrücken eine Rolle.“ (sv)

from --- logistik-inside.de

Chief executives' pay at the biggest companies in Europe and America

What the boss pockets

Nov 12th 2008
From Economist.com

Chief executives' pay at the biggest companies in Europe and America


RUNNING a big company is a big job with a pay packet to match. But heading an American firm is far more rewarding than leading a European business. Chief executives of America's 50 biggest companies are paid on average 75% more than their European counterparts, according to a new report by Hay Group, a consultancy. They also take a far bigger chunk of their package in long-term incentives, such as stock options. Lee Scott of Wal-Mart, the best-paid CEO, is heavily incentivised. By contrast, Franz Humer of Roche (who has since stepped down) earned the biggest salary, but a smaller bonus and incentives. Steve Ballmer's relatively paltry pay is supplemented by his big shareholding in Microsoft. EDF, a state-controlled energy company, is laudably careful with French taxpayers' money.

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Automaker CEOs Plead For "$25 Billion Lifeline."

Automaker CEOs Plead For "$25 Billion Lifeline."

At a Senate hearing yesterday, "Detroit's Big Three automakers pleaded...for a $25 billion lifeline to save the once-proud titans of US industry," the AP (11/19, Davis) reports. Ford CEO Alan Mulally, Chrysler CEO Robert Nardelli, and GM CEO G. Richard Wagoner Jr. warned of "national economic catastrophe should they collapse." Wagoner said, "Our industry...needs a bridge to span the financial chasm that has opened up before us." Wagoner "blamed the industry's predicament not on management failures but on the deepening global financial crisis." Nardelli "told the panel the bailout would be 'the least costly alternative' when compared with damage from bankruptcy."

        ABC World News (11/18, story 3, 2:25, Gibson) said the "$25 billion taxpayer bailout...would amount to $81.71 for every man, woman, and child in America. The heads of GM, Ford and Chrysler, however, predicted an economic disaster for themselves and the country if they don't get the money." ABC (Karl): "Their basic message? Pay now or pay much more later if their industry collapses."

        The CBS Evening News (11/18, lead story, 3:00) reported, "It is the toughest road General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler have ever had to travel: uphill all the way to the US Capitol." NBC Nightly News (11/18, lead story, 3:50, Williams) added, "GM may not make it without help, and others may have to merge. If just one of the Big Three were to fail, an estimated 2.5 million jobs might be lost. That's what Congress is trying to balance because there's bailout fatigue right now in Washington."

        AFP (11/18, Loubette) noted that GM "has said it will run out of cash as early as January if it does not get help from the government and analysts have said it would likely be liquidated if it was forced into bankruptcy protection." The Wall Street Journal (11/19, A1, Hitt, Dolan) reports on its front page that the fact "that the companies were convening -- 'hat in hand,'" as Dodd put it -- "before a congressional panel reinforced the depth of their difficulties and the possible diminishment of their political clout. Extending a helping hand to Detroit automakers, long a central part of the nation's manufacturing base, doesn't appear to be a given." USA Today (11/19, Hyde, Spangler) says the three CEOs and United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger "warned of grave damage to the entire US economy and to one another should one of Detroit's titans tumble into bankruptcy. They said a court reorganization would shatter consumer confidence and cost the government more" than the $25 billion they seek.

        The front page of the Washington Post (11/19, A1, Montgomery), the Financial Times (11/19, Dombey), the front page of the New York Times (11/19, A1, Vlasic, Herszenhorn), the Politico (11/19, Rogers), the Washington Times (11/19, Lengell), the Christian Science Monitor (11/19, Grier) and The Hill (11/19, Bogardus) also report on the auto industry's request, while the Wall Street Journal (11/19, A18, Conkey) compares a possible rescue package to the post-9/11 rescue of the airline industry.

HP Calms Wall Street With Solid 4Q Outlook.

HP Calms Wall Street With Solid 4Q Outlook.

On the front page of its Marketplace section, the Wall Street Journal (11/19, B1, Scheck, Dicolo) reports that CEO "Mark Hurd's focus on cost cutting helped turn around Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP) when the economy was strong. Now with the economy slumping," Hurd "is relying on the same strategy to keep profits up." HP on "Tuesday surprised Wall Street with an early announcement of better-than-expected earnings for its most recent quarter -- one of the few tech companies to unveil positive numbers in the past few weeks." Also, "the world's biggest maker of PCs by revenue...forecast improved profit next year, even as it projected revenue will be lower than analysts' estimates, an indication the company will continue its aggressive cost cuts."

        The New York Times (11/19, B2, Richtel) adds, "The company said its core business was not declining as quickly as it was at other major technology companies, prompting investors to drive its shares up nearly 15 percent." HP "also said that its fourth-quarter results had exceeded its earlier projections." In the meantime, "companies like Cisco Systems and Intel, reporting a rapid decline in consumer spending starting in October, have prepared investors to expect revenue declines of 10 percent or more."

        The Financial Times (11/19, Waters) describes the company "as the technology industry's main bellwether," noting that HP's "pre-announced earnings and issued a forecast for next year that helped calm recent frayed nerves on Wall Street." The tech giant, however, "warned the strength of the dollar would wipe 6-7 percentage points from its revenue growth rate next year. In spite of that, HP's revenues and earnings held up through to the end of October, the end of its fiscal year, and the company gave a strong earnings forecast for its current fiscal year." Forbes (11/19, Gutierrez), the AP (11/19, Ortutay), MarketWatch (11/19, Crum) and Product Reviews (11/19) also cover the story.

What's Next for Yahoo?

What's Next for Yahoo?

After Jerry Yang, Yahoo may need to rethink its strategy.

By Erica Naone   --- from technologyreview.com

Late on Monday, Yahoo announced that Jerry Yang would step down as CEO of the troubled Internet giant. The company's shares were trading up more than 11 percent on Tuesday morning following the news, but with ad revenue declining and after several rounds of layoffs, Yahoo still faces a major challenge to turn its fortunes around.

Yang, who cofounded the company in 1994 and returned to serve as CEO in June 2007, will move back to his previous role as "Chief Yahoo" and remain a member of the company's board of directors. He steps down after a hard year for Yahoo and decisions that helped heap pressure on him as head of the company.

This January, Yahoo rejected a buyout offer from Microsoft, which had offered $31 a share ($44.6 billion), a decision that proved unpopular with some shareholders and led to a protracted battle for control of Yahoo's board. The company then looked to an advertising deal with Google for help resuscitating its business, but Google walked away earlier this month when it appeared that such a deal could lead to an antitrust lawsuit.

Yang's departure may well reopen the way for a deal with Microsoft. Without such an agreement, Yahoo will be hoping that the open technology strategy spearheaded by Yang as CEO pays off as other companies make money from using its platform to develop new Web tools and software.

In the past year, Yahoo has bet heavily on an open strategy that the company credits Yang with creating. The idea is for Yahoo to open many of its tools, including its search index, to other companies and to share in revenues earned from the use of those tools. Yahoo also has plans to organize its disparate properties into a "single social platform."

Andrew Frank, a Gartner Research vice president, believes that Yahoo has a chance to salvage its fortunes using such an approach. Despite recent negative news, he notes that the company still makes money and still has a large and loyal audience. Frank says that he thinks the open strategy is the right one for Yahoo in the long term: "Yahoo's fortune, for better or for worse, is largely connected to the fortunes of open platforms and open companies on the Internet, from a technology standpoint."

But other experts are more skeptical that Yahoo can make the strategy pay. "I think the open strategy is on trend, as they say," says David Card, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research. "A lot of people are creating more and more APIs [tools that open a Web service to outside developers]. It's acknowledged to be the way you do business, especially if you're not the leader."

But Card adds that Yahoo must ultimately decide whether to maintain core services such as search or social networking--a task that is becoming difficult in the face of competition--or to more substantially open up popular properties, such as Flickr and Del.icio.us, to other companies, and create similar new niche services--a choice that would be humbling for the portal company. Card adds that Yahoo's current situation might be helped if the company continues to invest heavily in mobile, an area where no company has yet achieved dominance.

Considering how much the company has invested in developing new open systems such asBuild Your Own Search Service (BOSS), Frank questions whether new leadership will shift the company away from this direction. Yahoo's biggest problem in the short term, he says, is the market's shaken faith in the company. Open projects may have to go on the back burner while the company works to appease investors, perhaps by inking partnership deals, or even agreeing to be acquired.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Industrial Output Posts Greater-Than-Anticipated Increase.

Industrial Output Posts Greater-Than-Anticipated Increase.

The New York Times /AP (11/18, B11) reports, "Industrial output posted a bigger-than-expected increase in October after plunging in September by the largest amount in more than 60 years. The Federal Reserve said Monday that industrial output rose 1.3 percent last month, reflecting a return to more normal operations after hurricanes and a strike at Boeing, the aircraft manufacturer, in September." October's "rebound reflected a return to more normal operations at chemical plants, oil refineries and drilling platforms along the Gulf Coast."

The Wall Street Journal (11/18) adds, "Excluding the special factors, total industrial production was estimated to have fallen around two-thirds percent in both September and October, the Fed said. ... Separately, economists expect the overall producer price index for October to decline, while core [producer price index], which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to inch up."

Bloomberg News (11/18, Chandra) notes, "Factories are trimming production as banks restrict lending, worsening the economic slump that may be the longest in decades. A slide in overseas demand is also slowing American exports, which were helping manufacturers cushion the slide in US sales." Today's report "is one of the earliest regional takes on manufacturing this month. A report from the Philadelphia Fed, due Nov. 20, may show manufacturing in the region contracted in November for the 11th time in the last year."

The Age (11/18) points out that "the 1.3% gain wasn't enough to make up for the 3.7% September plunge," and one economist commented, "Export demand is falling apart, and domestic demand has already fallen apart. We'll stay in a recession at least until the early part of 2010." Other reports "indicate a bleak outlook for manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index for October dropped at the fastest pace in 26 years."

Student Robotics Competition Focuses On Climate Issues.

Student Robotics Competition Focuses On Climate Issues.

The Ventura County (CA) Star (11/17, Moore) reported, "More than 200 students filled the Boys & Girls Club in Camarillo on Sunday, displaying Lego robots they had built and programmed to complete a series of missions related to the climate." The competitions, sponsored by FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology), "included delivering a polar bear to its proper habitat, elevating a house and taking an ice core sample out of the ground." The student "teams were judged in four areas: project presentation, robot performance, technical design and programming, and teamwork." In addition to the robotics competition, the students "researched a problem with the climate in their own area," and developed a solution, which they then presented "to their homeowners association and...city officials," as well as the competition's judges.

Emerson Opens New Technology Center In China.

Emerson Opens New Technology Center In China.

The St. Louis Business Journal (11/18) reports, "Emerson said Monday that it has opened its new Asia Flow Technology Center in Nanjing, China." The facility "expands production capacity and services for Emerson Process Management's flow metering and measurement technologies that serve the oil and gas, refining, petrochemicals, marine, life sciences, food and beverage, metals and mining, and pulp and paper industries." The new "manufacturing facility features the region's highest accuracy flow calibration laboratory." The article notes that "the center joins other recently opened Emerson Process Management facilities in Asia including Chiba (Tokyo) Japan; Wuqing, Tianjin China; Rayong Province, Thailand; Bao'an, Shenzhen, China; and Singapore."

An Algorithm with No Secrets

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

An Algorithm with No Secrets

Cryptographers will compete to define a new standard.

By Erica Naone --- from technologyreview.com

Cryptographers from around the world have laid their best work on the line in a contest to find a new algorithm that will become a critical part of future communications across the Internet. The winning code will become a building block of a wide variety of Internet protocols, including those used to safeguard communications between banks and their customers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) organized the competition and plans to release a short list of the best entries by the end of this month, beginning a four-year process of painstaking analysis to find the overall winner.


Credit: Technology Review

All this effort is necessary because the current standard--the Secure Hash Algorithm 2 (SHA-2)--is starting to show its age. In 2005, Xiaoyun Wang, a professor at the Center for Advanced Study at Tsinghua University, in China, found weaknesses in several related hashing algorithms. Since then, she and her peers in the field have chipped away at other hashing schemes, making officials worry that SHA-2 will also eventually succumb.

A hash algorithm turns an ordinary message into a "digital fingerprint," which can then be used to keep the original message secret during transit or to guarantee that it hasn't been tampered with en route. But a hash function is only considered secure if there is no practical way to run it backward and find the original message from the fingerprint. Equally important, there should be no trivial way to produce two messages with exactly the same fingerprint. The weaknesses discovered by Wang and others relate to this problem--something cryptographers call "a collision." The latter issue is complicated by the fact that it is impossible to completely avoid collisions. So the best algorithm is one that simply makes collisions extremely hard to produce. "You shouldn't be able to find them," says William Burr, manager of the Security Technology Group for NIST. "The computation should be too great."

But competition entrants face another major challenge. While encryption algorithms rely on keeping a "key" secret from attackers, cryptographic hash functions can have no such secrets. This gives an attacker plenty of avenues for cracking a hash algorithm, says Burr.

"Hash functions are the most widely used and the most poorly understood cryptographic primitives," adds Bruce Schneier, chief security technology officer at BT Counterpane and one of the competition entrants. "It's possible that everything gets broken here, simply because we don't really understand how hash functions work."

It will take a long time to find a new algorithm and get it ready for general use, so NIST decided not to wait until SHA-2 was actually compromised. Burr notes that SHA-1, an older hash algorithm that NIST no longer recommends because of weaknesses uncovered by Wang, "is more damaged than destroyed," since a great deal of computation is still needed to find a collision. "We decided we had to rethink the whole thing," Burr adds, "because we were just learning more and more about [how hash functions can be attacked], a lot of it disquieting."

Beyond relieving worries about security, a new algorithm can take advantage of new trends in computing, such as dual-core processors, making it faster. "Hashes are the workhorse of cryptography," Schneier says, "so performance is critical."

NIST has received 64 entries for the competition and is looking for ways to narrow down the list. When NIST publishes the short list of entries at the end of this month, cryptographers the world over will begin analyzing them. This promises to be a lengthy process. "For many of the good submissions, discussions about their security will become more subtle than just talking about broken versus nonbroken," says Christian Rechberger, a lecturer in cryptography at the Institute for Applied Information Processing and Communications, in Austria, and another competition entrant. "For this discussion, the time until the planned decision in 2012 is definitely needed."

Brian Gladman, a U.K. cryptographer, says that the list of researchers who have submitted algorithms for the competition is impressive. It includes submissions from luminaries such as MIT computer-science professor Ron Rivest, who has already written several highly influential hash functions, and Joan Daemen, one of the designers of a widely-used encryption standard known as the Advanced Encryption Standard (AES).

Rechberger helps maintain the SHA-3 Zoo, a website that collects entries and related analysis. Ultimately, there could be several finalists that remain unbroken at the end of the competition. At the end, the winner will be chosen based on other considerations, such as its speed. For the coming months, however, analysis of entries will do much to advance the understanding of hash functions. And, more dramatically, cryptographers will begin breaking one another's algorithms.

http://www.partow.net/programming/hashfunctions/index.html

Ten-Minute Blood Test

Monday, November 17, 2008

Ten-Minute Blood Test

A cheap chip rapidly identifies cancer proteins in a drop of blood.

By Katherine Bourzac --- from Technologyreview.com

Measuring proteins in the blood can help doctors determine patients' cancer risk and monitor the health of the elderly and people with chronic diseases. But current methods for testing these proteins are too expensive and require too much blood to be performed regularly. A microfluidic chip in clinical trials does on a single chip in 10 minutes what normally takes multiple technicians hours to do--and with just a single drop of blood. Researchers hope to make bedside diagnostics based on blood proteins a reality by bringing down the cost of such tests by at least an order of magnitude.

The diagnostic chip is being developed by Caltech chemistry professor James Heath and by Leroy Hood, the president and founder of the Institute for Systems Biology, in Seattle. Heath and Hood have founded a company called Integrated Diagnostics to commercialize the blood chip.


Finger prick to protein: A microfluidic chip identifies 35 proteins in a drop of blood within 10 minutes. The entire analysis process is performed on the chip. First, blood cells are separated from protein-rich serum, which travels down the narrow channels. These channels are coated with protein-capturing bar codes that light up under a fluorescent microscope if the blood drop contained the protein of interest.
Credit: James Heath

"Serum proteins provide an incredible window into the biology of disease," says Paul Mischel, a professor of pathology at the University of California, Los Angeles. But today, it costs about $500 to test for one blood protein, and these tests require 10 to 15 milliliters of blood and multiple visits to the doctor.

"We decided to make things dirt cheap: it costs a nickel a protein," Heath says of the current device. Such rapid and cheap tests requiring only a drop of blood should allow doctors to monitor more proteins more frequently, enabling earlier detection of diseases like cancer and better preventive care for the elderly. The new diagnostics should also be more accurate, says Heath. Traditional blood samples sit for hours or even days before the measurement process is completed, allowing plenty of time for them to degrade.

Heath and Hood's device, described in this week's issue of Nature Biotechnology, starts the analysis process with some simple microfluidics. A drop of blood is pulled down a microscale channel by the application of a small external pressure. This first channel branches off into narrower ones, which exclude blood cells and admit the protein-rich blood serum. In typical blood tests, this separation step requires a centrifuge.

The narrower channels are patterned with what Heath calls a protein bar code--lines of DNA bound to antibodies that capture proteins of interest from the serum. After the serum and cells are flushed out, antibodies bound to red fluorescent proteins are flushed in, lighting up captured blood proteins. The protein bar codes can be read under a fluorescent microscope or a gene-chip scanner. The identity of the captured blood proteins can be determined by the location of red lines in the bar code relative to a green fluorescent reference line.

By measuring how much light radiates from a particular protein's spot in the bar code, Heath and Hood can quantify its concentration in the blood. Heath notes that the chip can measure blood proteins present over a wide concentration range, making it possible to measure not only plentiful blood proteins created by the immune system, but also rarer proteins originating in organs such as the brain. The device is as sensitive as conventional protein tests, and Heath and Hood can measure any proteins they're interested in by making custom chips with the right antibodies.

While other groups have focused on proteins that are created by many organs, making the results difficult to interpret, Hood says, "We're developing a strategy to identify blood proteins that are organ-specific." Hood says his group is currently using mass spectrometry to discover proteins specific to the liver and brain.

In their published paper, the researchers describe using the blood test to determine the risk level of people with breast and prostate cancer. Heath says that the chip is being tested in clinical trials involving both cancer patients and healthy individuals. The studies of healthy patients that the group is currently undertaking would be impractical using technologies that require a large blood draw, but using the chips, Heath says that it's possible to measure blood proteins several times a day. The researchers are using the blood chips to monitor how diet and exercise influence blood-protein composition.

"These devices should lead to a decrease in cost and an incredible benefit to patients," says Emil Kartalov, a professor of pathology at the University of Southern California's Keck School of Medicine. Kartalov, who's not collaborating with Heath and Hood, is developing similar chips, and he developed some of the separation methods used on the blood chip. Kartalov says that Heath and Hood's work is a major step forward, but that for these chips to truly go out into the field, they'll need to move beyond fluorescent proteins. Fluorescent microscopes are too expensive and too bulky to be carried onto the battlefield or into patients' homes. Kartalov says that future diagnostics will probably replace the fluorescent proteins with charged proteins, since measuring changes in electrical current is much simpler and more practical.