Sunday, December 07, 2008

Understanding hype cycles



What is a Hype Cycle?

What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

What is the Priority Matrix?

What was the most influential Hype Cycle?

What is a Hype Cycle?


A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. 

Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies (seeUnderstanding Gartner's Hype Cycles) for an introduction to the Hype Cycle concepts). Hype Cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted. Read More


What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?


1. "Technology Trigger"
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. 

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. 

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. 

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. 

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. 



What is the Priority Matrix?


The Priority Matrix is a tool for prioritizing emerging technologies by forcing technology planners to look beyond the hype and assess technology opportunities in terms of their relative impact on the enterprise. 

The Priority Matrix supplements the vertical visibility or "hype" axis of the Hype Cycle with a focus on the potential benefit of the technology, rated as transformational, high, moderate or low. 

The pairing of each Hype Cycle with a Priority Matrix will help you better determine the importance and timing of potential investments based on benefit rather than hype.


What was the most influential Hype Cycle?


The E-Business-Hype Cycle by Alex Drobik in fall 1999 that predicted the burst of the dot-com bubble in spring 2000.

--- from www.gartner.com